Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-11-05?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$22.67

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,180

Combined PnL-$21.65

Yes1 trader

Total Value$200.7

Total Shares456

Combined PnL-$1.03

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 55.9¢	$635.43	$619.39	-$16.04	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
GC GC-P	Noavg 56.8¢	$529.21	$532.98	+$3.77	64% 9962-5592 (15554)
NM NM-P	Noavg 55.8¢	$510.76	$498.86	-$11.9	64% 9920-5524 (15444)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Yesavg 44.2¢	$201.73	$200.7	-$1.03	54% 1220-1042 (2262)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 55¢	$193.35	$196.87	+$5.27	50% 28405-28303 (56708)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 56¢	$191.97	$191.97	+$0	49% 14703-15372 (30075)
SE sentrio	Noavg 55.9¢	$156.23	$154.99	-$1.24	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 57¢	$114	$112	-$1	47% 11682-13378 (25060)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$48.65	$50.37	+$1.72	53% 16795-14918 (31713)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.7¢	$29.16	$27.8	-$1.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38¢	$19.49	$22.57	+$3.08
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 60¢	$30	$28	-$2	48% 61030-65863 (126893)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 56¢	$23.59	$23.59	+$0	51% 6334-6121 (12455)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 55¢	$19.25	$19.6	+$0.35	49% 4474-4672 (9146)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 58.2¢	$36.7	$11.2	+$0.96	58% 46658-33622 (80280)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 55¢	$10	$10.18	+$0.18	53% 2569-2244 (4813)

Flaznorp

Invested

$635.43

Value

$619.39

PnL

-$16.04

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

GC-P

Invested

$529.21

Value

$532.98

PnL

+$3.77

Record

64%

9962-5592 (15554)

NM-P

Invested

$510.76

Value

$498.86

PnL

-$11.9

Record

64%

9920-5524 (15444)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Yes

Invested

$201.73

Value

$200.7

PnL

-$1.03

Record

54%

1220-1042 (2262)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$193.35

Value

$196.87

PnL

+$5.27

Record

50%

28405-28303 (56708)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$191.97

Value

$191.97

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

14703-15372 (30075)

sentrio

Invested

$156.23

Value

$154.99

PnL

-$1.24

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$114

Value

$112

PnL

-$1

Record

47%

11682-13378 (25060)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$48.65

Value

$50.37

PnL

+$1.72

Record

53%

16795-14918 (31713)

Both legs:

No$29.1658.7¢-$1.35

Yes$19.4938¢+$3.08

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$28

PnL

-$2

Record

48%

61030-65863 (126893)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$23.59

Value

$23.59

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

6334-6121 (12455)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$19.25

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

4474-4672 (9146)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$36.7

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$0.96

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10.18

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

2569-2244 (4813)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.