Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Karnali Yaks, while the market favors Kathmandu Gurkhas (100%). 6 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nepal Premier League: Kathmandu Gurkhas vs Karnali Yaks

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Karnali Yaks (40%) · Karnali Yaks at 0.2¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

Kathmandu Gurkhas>99¢Karnali Yaks<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Karnali Yaks

Consensus Traders

Karnali Yaks 40%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 0.2¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidKarnali Yaks at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Karnali Yaks

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Kathmandu Gurkhas 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kathmandu Gurkhas100%

Karnali Yaks0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kathmandu Gurkhas9 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,091

Combined PnL-$167.11

Karnali Yaks6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,550

Combined PnL-$939.71

Kathmandu Gurkhas — 60%Karnali Yaks — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Karnali Yaks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKathmandu Gurkhas 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrKarnali Yaks 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Kathmandu Gurkhas 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dips.	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 65.3¢	$1.1K	$854.19	-$204.87	46% 7315-8501 (15816)
SM smithagentCTR	Karnali Yaksavg 54.1¢	$1.0K	$801.74	-$232.98	48% 3290-3580 (6870)
NO NotJump	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 70.8¢	$789.94	$748.87	-$41.07	43% 7727-10453 (18180)
CI cigarettesCTR	Karnali Yaksavg 30.3¢	$1.1K	$709.34	-$433.52	56% 18365-14704 (33069)
tradecraftCTR	Karnali Yaksavg 94¢	$188.15	$226.07	+$37.92	51% 6151-5871 (12022)
poshposhCTR	Karnali Yaksavg 41.9¢	$399.67	$171.54	-$228.13	58% 11427-8282 (19709)
MI mishipolis	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 46.4¢	$568.88	$164.09	-$17.37	50% 4634-4563 (9197)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Karnali Yaksavg 55¢	$110	$122	+$12	37% 731-1227 (1958)
BE berlinskies	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 94¢	$99.99	$106.16	+$6.17	58% 6029-4387 (10416)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 33.2¢	$51.45	$89.14	+$37.69	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
PA pauleta23<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 60.5¢	$54.59	$73.6	+$19.01	66% 23616-11929 (35545)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 40.3¢	$19.85	$34.96	+$15.11	51% 994-958 (1952)
HRTrading<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 32.5¢	$13.58	$23.54	+$9.96	53% 6370-5754 (12124)
SU suntori<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 27.5¢	$3.14	$11.4	+$8.26	45% 12892-15654 (28546)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 47¢	$95.41	$0.41	-$95	48% 92-98 (190)

dips.

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$1,059.06

Value

$854.19

PnL

-$204.87

Record

46%

7315-8501 (15816)

smithagentCTR

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$1,039.07

Value

$801.74

PnL

-$232.98

Record

48%

3290-3580 (6870)

NotJump

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$789.94

Value

$748.87

PnL

-$41.07

Record

43%

7727-10453 (18180)

cigarettesCTR

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$1,142.86

Value

$709.34

PnL

-$433.52

Record

56%

18365-14704 (33069)

tradecraftCTR

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$188.15

Value

$226.07

PnL

+$37.92

Record

51%

6151-5871 (12022)

poshposhCTR

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$399.67

Value

$171.54

PnL

-$228.13

Record

58%

11427-8282 (19709)

mishipolis

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$568.88

Value

$164.09

PnL

-$17.37

Record

50%

4634-4563 (9197)

mouzsynapseCTR

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$110

Value

$122

PnL

+$12

Record

37%

731-1227 (1958)

berlinskies

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$99.99

Value

$106.16

PnL

+$6.17

Record

58%

6029-4387 (10416)

Flaznorp<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$51.45

Value

$89.14

PnL

+$37.69

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

pauleta23<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$54.59

Value

$73.6

PnL

+$19.01

Record

66%

23616-11929 (35545)

ferdinand2<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$19.85

Value

$34.96

PnL

+$15.11

Record

51%

994-958 (1952)

HRTrading<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$13.58

Value

$23.54

PnL

+$9.96

Record

53%

6370-5754 (12124)

suntori<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$3.14

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$8.26

Record

45%

12892-15654 (28546)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$95.41

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$95

Record

48%

92-98 (190)

Research grade

AvoidKarnali Yaks at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Karnali Yaks

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Kathmandu Gurkhas 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Karnali Yaks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKathmandu Gurkhas 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrKarnali Yaks 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Kathmandu Gurkhas 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Karnali Yaks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.