Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Melbourne Stars, while the market favors Perth Scorchers (100%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Big Bash League, Women: Melbourne Stars vs Perth Scorchers

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Melbourne Stars (77%) · Melbourne Stars at 0.1¢ · $54K held · ends Nov 9

Melbourne Stars<1¢Perth Scorchers>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Melbourne Stars

Consensus Traders

Melbourne Stars 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$53.8K

Combined PnL

$847.5

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidMelbourne Stars at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne Stars

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Perth Scorchers 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Melbourne Stars0%

Perth Scorchers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Perth Scorchers3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,891

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Melbourne Stars10 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares9,953

Combined PnL-$432.63

Perth Scorchers — 23%Melbourne Stars — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 50.1¢	$35.7K	$41.2K	+$5.5K	54% 255-218 (473)
└ Perth Scorchers leg	Perth Scorchersavg 32.7¢	$13.2K	$32.4K	+$19.3K
└ Melbourne Stars leg	Melbourne Starsavg 50.1¢	$22.5K	$8.8K	$-13.7K
CI cigarettes	Perth Scorchersavg 46.7¢	$3.3K	$4.6K	+$1.2K	56% 18365-14704 (33069)
NO NotJumpCTR	Melbourne Starsavg 59.3¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$125.46	43% 7727-10453 (18180)
DI dips.CTR	Melbourne Starsavg 47.3¢	$3.4K	$2.2K	-$806.59	46% 7315-8501 (15816)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Melbourne Starsavg 47¢	$305	$680	+$375	62% 4292-2628 (6920)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Melbourne Starsavg 43¢	$382.98	$605.64	+$222.66	37% 731-1227 (1958)
FL Flaznorp	Perth Scorchersavg 38.5¢	$100.56	$150.06	+$49.5	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
MI mishipolisCTR	Melbourne Starsavg 53.7¢	$502.99	$65.78	-$105.77	50% 4634-4563 (9197)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 66.6¢	$40	$42.91	+$2.91	66% 23616-11929 (35545)
probability<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 52.9¢	$58.54	$41.85	-$16.69	41% 1399-2007 (3406)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 42.5¢	$21.68	$16.13	-$5.56	51% 994-958 (1952)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 45¢	$11.22	$14.46	+$3.24	53% 8072-7284 (15356)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 40.3¢	$14.35	$14.19	-$0.16	53% 6370-5754 (12124)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 47¢	$6.49	$13.59	+$7.09	51% 3961-3861 (7822)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$35,676.18

Value

$41.2K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

54%

255-218 (473)

Both legs:

Perth Scorchers$13,154.3132.7¢+$19.3K

Melbourne Stars$22,521.8850.1¢$-13.7K

cigarettes

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$3,337.9

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

56%

18365-14704 (33069)

NotJumpCTR

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$4,262.22

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$125.46

Record

43%

7727-10453 (18180)

dips.CTR

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$3,353.98

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$806.59

Record

46%

7315-8501 (15816)

SunlineTickerCTR

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$305

Value

$680

PnL

+$375

Record

62%

4292-2628 (6920)

mouzsynapseCTR

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$382.98

Value

$605.64

PnL

+$222.66

Record

37%

731-1227 (1958)

Flaznorp

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$100.56

Value

$150.06

PnL

+$49.5

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

mishipolisCTR

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$502.99

Value

$65.78

PnL

-$105.77

Record

50%

4634-4563 (9197)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$40

Value

$42.91

PnL

+$2.91

Record

66%

23616-11929 (35545)

probability<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$58.54

Value

$41.85

PnL

-$16.69

Record

41%

1399-2007 (3406)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$21.68

Value

$16.13

PnL

-$5.56

Record

51%

994-958 (1952)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$11.22

Value

$14.46

PnL

+$3.24

Record

53%

8072-7284 (15356)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$14.35

Value

$14.19

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

6370-5754 (12124)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$6.49

Value

$13.59

PnL

+$7.09

Record

51%

3961-3861 (7822)

Research grade

AvoidMelbourne Stars at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne Stars

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Perth Scorchers 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Melbourne Stars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.