Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (46%) · Spirit at 74¢ · $116K held · ends Nov 12

Spirit74¢G226¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$115.9K

Combined PnL

$463.15

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 73.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit74%

G227%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit6 traders

Total Value$75.7K

Total Shares102,320

Combined PnL+$108.15

G27 traders

Total Value$40.1K

Total Shares152,845

Combined PnL+$355

Spirit — 46%G2 — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSpirit 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrG2 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000G2 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA randomrandomrandom	Spiritavg 74¢	$61.1K	$61.1K	-$0	— 4-1 (5)
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	G2avg 26¢	$18.9K	$19.3K	+$363.62	0% 0-28 (28)
KateBollingerCTR	G2avg 26¢	$13.0K	$13.0K	+$0	6% 6-91 (97)
relativesignificance	Spiritavg 73¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$76.9	56% 147-116 (263)
VI vibing123CTR	G2avg 26¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$0	63% 1099-655 (1754)
PA Partyarty91	Spiritavg 74¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$27.03	0% 0-74 (74)
RA Rayaya	Spiritavg 73¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$50	— 5-3 (8)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	G2avg 26¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	54% 82-70 (152)
rafaleaooCTR	G2avg 26¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	2% 14-633 (647)
VE Vetch	Spiritavg 73¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$8	2% 1-50 (51)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	G2avg 26¢	$312	$312	+$0	63% 20-12 (32)
MA MadridTimeCTR	G2avg 27¢	$232.97	$224.34	-$8.63	31% 410-897 (1307)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Spiritavg 73¢	$93.46	$94.33	+$0.87	55% 680-552 (1232)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 73¢	$63.85	$64.73	+$0.87
└ G2 leg	G2avg 26¢	$29.61	$29.61	+$0
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Spiritavg 73¢	$41.72	$42.01	+$0.29	61% 929-595 (1524)

randomrandomrandom

Spirit

Invested

$61,100.53

Value

$61.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

—

4-1 (5)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

Invested

$18,908.43

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$363.62

Record

0-28 (28)

KateBollingerCTR

Invested

$13,000

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

6-91 (97)

relativesignificance

Spirit

Invested

$5,613.37

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$76.9

Record

56%

147-116 (263)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$4,695.05

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

1099-655 (1754)

Partyarty91

Spirit

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$27.03

Record

0-74 (74)

Rayaya

Spirit

Invested

$3,649.95

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$50

Record

—

5-3 (8)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

Invested

$1,300

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

82-70 (152)

rafaleaooCTR

Invested

$1,300

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

14-633 (647)

Vetch

Spirit

Invested

$1,168

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$8

Record

1-50 (51)

JuiceFarmCTR

Invested

$312

Value

$312

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

20-12 (32)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$232.97

Value

$224.34

PnL

-$8.63

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

ghorrockARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$93.46

Value

$94.33

PnL

+$0.87

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

Both legs:

Spirit$63.8573¢+$0.87

G2$29.6126¢+$0

darkumbreon88<$100

Spirit

Invested

$41.72

Value

$42.01

PnL

+$0.29

Record

61%

929-595 (1524)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSpirit 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrG2 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000G2 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.