FC Baník Ostrava vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 76¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 76¢

+77% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares13,583

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares6,500

Combined PnL-$366.56

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Underavg 42.9¢	$5.8K	$8.4K	+$2.2K	49% 167-174 (341)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 57¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$226.21	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 57.5¢	$424.96	$347.72	-$77.24	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
HRTradingCTR	Overavg 57¢	$106.59	$98.18	-$8.42	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 56.7¢	$85	$78.75	-$6.25	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$94.62	$48.97	-$45.65	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
RN1<$100	Underavg 62¢	$43.5	$43.38	-$0.13	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 53.9¢	$28.62	$35.06	+$6.44	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$28.71	$25.99	-$2.72	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$1.78	$1.7	-$0.08	52% 7499-6786 (14285)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Under

Invested

$5,784.58

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

49%

167-174 (341)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$2,287.28

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$226.21

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$424.96

Value

$347.72

PnL

-$77.24

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

HRTradingCTR

Over

Invested

$106.59

Value

$98.18

PnL

-$8.42

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$85

Value

$78.75

PnL

-$6.25

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$94.62

Value

$48.97

PnL

-$45.65

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$43.5

Value

$43.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$28.62

Value

$35.06

PnL

+$6.44

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.71

Value

$25.99

PnL

-$2.72

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.