Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (58%) · HULIGANI at 100¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 2

LEGION<1¢HULIGANI>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 58%

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$6.3K

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 100¢

+76% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LEGION0%

HULIGANI100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI7 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares20,381

Combined PnL+$6.9K

LEGION5 traders

Total Value$29.65

Total Shares2,622

Combined PnL-$558.53

HULIGANI — 58%LEGION — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 64% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	HULIGANIavg 39.8¢	$4.0K	$10.0K	+$6.0K	52% 1579-1467 (3046)
PN pnhct	HULIGANIavg 65¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$13.98	53% 541-473 (1014)
FE fengshengshuiqi88	HULIGANIavg 89.9¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$191.27	71% 376-151 (527)
AM ameisgoat11	HULIGANIavg 67.5¢	$4.2K	$1.5K	+$640.92	52% 7639-6913 (14552)
Tolkonevminus2	HULIGANIavg 98.4¢	$794.46	$799.01	+$12.21	60% 78-53 (131)
SU suntori<$100	HULIGANIavg 67¢	$29.09	$42.98	+$13.89	45% 12902-15667 (28569)
LO lonmi2511<$100	HULIGANIavg 66¢	$23.1	$34.65	+$5.25	62% 1227-749 (1976)
CA calculate10CTR	LEGIONavg 11.5¢	$142.12	$19.63	-$59.35	53% 1237-1083 (2320)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 0.2¢	$1	$5	+$4	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 20¢	$93.34	$4.66	-$88.68	47% 10054-11163 (21217)
PO pol2131CTR	LEGIONavg 65¢	$259.99	$0.2	-$259.79	45% 412-503 (915)
GOLDCRYPT12CTR	LEGIONavg 52¢	$212.2	$0.16	-$154.72	51% 977-924 (1901)

vibing123

HULIGANI

Invested

$3,974.31

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

52%

1579-1467 (3046)

pnhct

HULIGANI

Invested

$5,941.52

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$13.98

Record

53%

541-473 (1014)

fengshengshuiqi88

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,900.99

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$191.27

Record

71%

376-151 (527)

ameisgoat11

HULIGANI

Invested

$4,177.17

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$640.92

Record

52%

7639-6913 (14552)

Tolkonevminus2

HULIGANI

Invested

$794.46

Value

$799.01

PnL

+$12.21

Record

60%

78-53 (131)

suntori<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$29.09

Value

$42.98

PnL

+$13.89

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

lonmi2511<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$23.1

Value

$34.65

PnL

+$5.25

Record

62%

1227-749 (1976)

calculate10CTR

LEGION

Invested

$142.12

Value

$19.63

PnL

-$59.35

Record

53%

1237-1083 (2320)

NotJumpCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

Value

PnL

+$4

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$93.34

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$88.68

Record

47%

10054-11163 (21217)

pol2131CTR

LEGION

Invested

$259.99

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$259.79

Record

45%

412-503 (915)

GOLDCRYPT12CTR

LEGION

Invested

$212.2

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$154.72

Record

51%

977-924 (1901)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 64% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.