Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs potn9ki (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (67%) · Xipto Esports at 63¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10

Xipto Esports63¢potn9ki37¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 62.5¢

-26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports63%

potn9ki38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports6 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares12,782

Combined PnL$-3.0K

potn9ki3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,808

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Xipto Esports — 67%potn9ki — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrXipto Esports 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	Xipto Esportsavg 84.9¢	$9.8K	$7.1K	$-2.8K	57% 503-385 (888)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	potn9kiavg 14.9¢	$680.3	$1.7K	+$1.0K	48% 473-515 (988)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 86.2¢	$889.99	$963.14	+$106.77	23% 142-486 (628)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 86.2¢	$696.69	$492.81	-$209.06
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 12.8¢	$154.5	$470.33	+$315.83
Medo3DCTR	potn9kiavg 20.1¢	$316.84	$511.6	+$194.76	3% 6-200 (206)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 88.4¢	$1.0K	$511.44	+$13.87	16% 14-71 (85)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 88.4¢	$351.73	$268.66	-$112.9
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 15¢	$112.35	$242.77	+$126.76
maytopmay	Xipto Esportsavg 87.4¢	$352.58	$245.99	-$106.59	7% 15-187 (202)
JU JuiceFarm	Xipto Esportsavg 84¢	$269.06	$240.23	-$28.83	— 4-1 (5)
PO PourpelNourpel	Xipto Esportsavg 82¢	$305.29	$227.11	-$78.19	53% 17-15 (32)
LR lryyy<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 65.8¢	$36.11	$41.19	+$5.08	50% 128-129 (257)
TE testBruno2CTR<$100	potn9kiavg 26¢	$69.09	$40.16	+$14.7	13% 4-28 (32)
CI cigarettes<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 88¢	$44	$37.5	-$6.5	52% 5313-4817 (10130)

Sisyphus-

Xipto Esports

Invested

$9,837.21

Value

$7.1K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

57%

503-385 (888)

RandomVibecoderCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$680.3

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

48%

473-515 (988)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$889.99

Value

$963.14

PnL

+$106.77

Record

23%

142-486 (628)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$696.6986.2¢-$209.06

potn9ki$154.512.8¢+$315.83

Medo3DCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$316.84

Value

$511.6

PnL

+$194.76

Record

6-200 (206)

calculate10ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,016.21

Value

$511.44

PnL

+$13.87

Record

16%

14-71 (85)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$351.7388.4¢-$112.9

potn9ki$112.3515¢+$126.76

maytopmay

Xipto Esports

Invested

$352.58

Value

$245.99

PnL

-$106.59

Record

15-187 (202)

JuiceFarm

Xipto Esports

Invested

$269.06

Value

$240.23

PnL

-$28.83

Record

—

4-1 (5)

PourpelNourpel

Xipto Esports

Invested

$305.29

Value

$227.11

PnL

-$78.19

Record

53%

17-15 (32)

lryyy<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$36.11

Value

$41.19

PnL

+$5.08

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

testBruno2CTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$69.09

Value

$40.16

PnL

+$14.7

Record

13%

4-28 (32)

cigarettes<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$44

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$6.5

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrXipto Esports 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.