Will Berkhamsted FC win on 2026-11-09?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$16.49

Smart Money Entry

78.5¢ → 78.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$949.04

Total Shares1,150

Combined PnL+$5.73

Yes2 traders

Total Value$206.19

Total Shares787

Combined PnL+$10.76

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 77.3¢	$339.89	$345.16	+$5.27	—
VE Venusian	Noavg 80¢	$268.48	$263.45	-$5.03	—
RN1CTR	Yesavg 20.1¢	$191.83	$202.29	+$10.46	—
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 79¢	$140.39	$142.17	+$1.78	—
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 21.7¢	$110.05	$121.53	+$11.47	—
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.7¢	$66.85	$80.16	+$13.31
└ No leg	Noavg 77.3¢	$43.2	$41.37	-$1.84
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$77.39	$78.25	+$0.86	—
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$65.77	$67.17	+$1.39	—
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 82¢	$30.6	$29.97	-$0.63	—
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$12.51	$13.52	+$1.01	—
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 70¢	$8.27	$9.35	+$1.09	—
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$3.6	$3.9	+$0.3	—

Flaznorp

Invested

$339.89

Value

$345.16

PnL

+$5.27

Record

—

Venusian

Invested

$268.48

Value

$263.45

PnL

-$5.03

Record

—

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$191.83

Value

$202.29

PnL

+$10.46

Record

—

SnakeBall

Invested

$140.39

Value

$142.17

PnL

+$1.78

Record

—

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$110.05

Value

$121.53

PnL

+$11.47

Record

—

Both legs:

Yes$66.8521.7¢+$13.31

No$43.277.3¢-$1.84

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$77.39

Value

$78.25

PnL

+$0.86

Record

—

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$65.77

Value

$67.17

PnL

+$1.39

Record

—

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$30.6

Value

$29.97

PnL

-$0.63

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Invested

$12.51

Value

$13.52

PnL

+$1.01

Record

—

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$8.27

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$1.09

Record

—

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.