Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-11-07?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 66¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$582.61

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 66¢

-17% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares6,882

Combined PnL-$928.73

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,615

Combined PnL+$346.12

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 89.1¢	$2.3K	$1.7K	-$597.47	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 68.1¢	$996.83	$966.01	-$30.82	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$833.2	$858.44	+$25.25	49% 299-312 (611)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 68.5¢	$713.16	$687.25	-$25.91	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 83.2¢	$756.86	$612.28	-$144.58	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 86.2¢	$555.5	$425.11	-$130.39	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$2.48	$281.07	+$278.59	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$193.23	$200.74	+$7.51	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ No leg	Noavg 93.6¢	$170.74	$120.44	-$50.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.5¢	$22.49	$80.3	+$57.81
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 82¢	$164.51	$192.69	+$28.18	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.4¢	$63.55	$111.43	+$47.88
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$100.96	$81.26	-$19.7
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$50.82	$63.04	+$41.8	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GC GC-P	Noavg 66¢	$107.3	$56.57	+$0.79	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 88¢	$66.66	$50	-$16.66	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$37.05	$39	+$0.49	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$16.57	$33.08	+$16.51	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 67¢	$13.31	$13.11	-$0.2	50% 26409-26025 (52434)

RN1

Invested

$2,340.81

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$597.47

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$996.83

Value

$966.01

PnL

-$30.82

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$833.2

Value

$858.44

PnL

+$25.25

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

LightParadox

Invested

$713.16

Value

$687.25

PnL

-$25.91

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Flaznorp

Invested

$756.86

Value

$612.28

PnL

-$144.58

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

MadridTime

Invested

$555.5

Value

$425.11

PnL

-$130.39

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$2.48

Value

$281.07

PnL

+$278.59

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$193.23

Value

$200.74

PnL

+$7.51

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

No$170.7493.6¢-$50.3

Yes$22.499.5¢+$57.81

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$164.51

Value

$192.69

PnL

+$28.18

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

Both legs:

Yes$63.5519.4¢+$47.88

No$100.9682¢-$19.7

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.82

Value

$63.04

PnL

+$41.8

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

GC-P

Invested

$107.3

Value

$56.57

PnL

+$0.79

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$66.66

Value

$50

PnL

-$16.66

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.05

Value

$39

PnL

+$0.49

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$16.57

Value

$33.08

PnL

+$16.51

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$13.31

Value

$13.11

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.