Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 0 - 0 Manchester City FC?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 95¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 7

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$460.5

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 95.2¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,982

Combined PnL-$13.23

Yes6 traders

Total Value$154.13

Total Shares3,211

Combined PnL-$447.28

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
E4 e46m3	No	$6.8K	$6.8K	-$14.09	66% 27662-13968 (41630)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$683.79	$694.27	+$11.16	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
└ No leg	Noavg 94.7¢	$498.53	$502.21	+$2.37
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.6¢	$185.26	$192.05	+$8.79
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 95.4¢	$378	$359.86	-$0.76	90% 5045-574 (5619)
NM NM-P	Noavg 94.6¢	$192.33	$193.58	+$0.93	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-P	Noavg 94.6¢	$200.09	$190.75	+$0.69	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$62.78	$66.96	+$4.19	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$1.0K	$48	-$452	28% 1145-2969 (4114)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$39.05	$37.17	-$0.12	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$30.35	$30.49	+$0.47	49% 14983-15895 (30878)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95¢	$18.32	$18.41	+$0.08	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$9.51	$9.54	+$0.03	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$4.95	$5.28	+$0.06	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$1.76	$1.82	+$0.06	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$1.61	$1.57	-$0.04	49% 1800-1900 (3700)

e46m3

Invested

$6,834.89

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$14.09

Record

66%

27662-13968 (41630)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$683.79

Value

$694.27

PnL

+$11.16

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

Both legs:

No$498.5394.7¢+$2.37

Yes$185.264.6¢+$8.79

nonkenny90

Invested

$378

Value

$359.86

PnL

-$0.76

Record

90%

5045-574 (5619)

NM-P

Invested

$192.33

Value

$193.58

PnL

+$0.93

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-P

Invested

$200.09

Value

$190.75

PnL

+$0.69

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.78

Value

$66.96

PnL

+$4.19

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$48

PnL

-$452

Record

28%

1145-2969 (4114)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$39.05

Value

$37.17

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.35

Value

$30.49

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.32

Value

$18.41

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$9.51

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.