Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Nottingham Forest FC (79%) · Nottingham Forest FC at 80¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Manchester City FC21¢Nottingham Forest FC79¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nottingham Forest FC

Consensus Traders

Nottingham Forest FC 79%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$3.7

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 79.5¢

+17% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNottingham Forest FC at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nottingham Forest FC

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Manchester City FC21%

Nottingham Forest FC80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nottingham Forest FC11 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares8,851

Combined PnL+$4.31

Manchester City FC3 traders

Total Value$173.83

Total Shares561

Combined PnL-$8

Nottingham Forest FC — 79%Manchester City FC — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Nottingham Forest FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNottingham Forest FC 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrNottingham Forest FC 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNottingham Forest FC 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nottingham Forest FC 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Nottingham Forest FCavg 67.6¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$0.41	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
VeryLucky888	Nottingham Forest FCavg 67.5¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	+$14.56	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
0xheavy888	Nottingham Forest FCavg 68¢	$815.99	$809.99	-$6	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
38 38791873984189	Nottingham Forest FCavg 68¢	$399.16	$399.16	-$0	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
FL Flaznorp	Nottingham Forest FCavg 69¢	$254.94	$251.26	-$3.68	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Manchester City FCavg 32.1¢	$84.94	$82.11	-$2.83	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Manchester City FCavg 33.1¢	$84.99	$79.63	-$5.36	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 68.5¢	$58.79	$58.39	-$0.39	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
DV dv-pm<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 69¢	$55.2	$54.8	-$0.4	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
GH ghorrock<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 67.5¢	$37.68	$37.69	+$0.01	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Manchester City FCavg 32.1¢	$12.51	$12.09	+$0.2	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 68.7¢	$10.3	$10.2	-$0.1	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
SE sentrio<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 69¢	$9.56	$9.42	-$0.07	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 68¢	$4.08	$4.05	-$0.03	54% 10453-8773 (19226)

GoalLineGhost

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$2,417.75

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$0.41

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

VeryLucky888

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$2,056.86

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$14.56

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

0xheavy888

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$815.99

Value

$809.99

PnL

-$6

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

38791873984189

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$399.16

Value

$399.16

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Flaznorp

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$254.94

Value

$251.26

PnL

-$3.68

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Manchester City FC

Invested

$84.94

Value

$82.11

PnL

-$2.83

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Manchester City FC

Invested

$84.99

Value

$79.63

PnL

-$5.36

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

SnakeBall<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$58.79

Value

$58.39

PnL

-$0.39

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

dv-pm<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$55.2

Value

$54.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

ghorrock<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$37.68

Value

$37.69

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Manchester City FC

Invested

$12.51

Value

$12.09

PnL

+$0.2

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

ameisgoat11<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

sentrio<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$9.56

Value

$9.42

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Pan9X<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Research grade

NeutralNottingham Forest FC at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nottingham Forest FC

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Nottingham Forest FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNottingham Forest FC 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrNottingham Forest FC 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNottingham Forest FC 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nottingham Forest FC 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nottingham Forest FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.