Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 2 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Twente win on 2026-11-08?

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (15%) · Yes at 30¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 15%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 29.5¢

-43% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares23,353

Combined PnL$-5.1K

No11 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares14,570

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL Bloodygoodrep1CTR	Yesavg 51.9¢	$9.5K	$6.9K	$-5.1K	48% 44-48 (92)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 52.3¢	$3.6K	$4.5K	+$894.33	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 48.9¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$635.15	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
GC GC-P	Noavg 49.1¢	$847.49	$803.02	-$44.47	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-P	Noavg 49.2¢	$804.68	$760.23	-$44.44	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
SE sentrio	Noavg 49.4¢	$537.81	$506.33	-$31.49	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 65.9¢	$325.89	$345.07	+$19.18	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$264.53	$271.17	+$6.64	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.7¢	$188.21	$204.95	+$16.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$76.31	$66.21	-$10.1
VeryLucky888	Noavg 49¢	$201.1	$186	-$10	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$146.68	$113.19	+$6.17	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.7¢	$76.8	$83.69	+$9.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33¢	$33	$29.5	-$3.5
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 49¢	$98	$99	+$1	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 70¢	$47.14	$47.48	+$0.34	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 69¢	$34.45	$35.42	+$0.97	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 46¢	$16.56	$25.38	+$8.82	55% 1428-1180 (2608)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$2.45	$1.9	-$0.55	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

Bloodygoodrep1CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,531.52

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

48%

44-48 (92)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,574.2

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$894.33

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,550.89

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$635.15

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

GC-P

Invested

$847.49

Value

$803.02

PnL

-$44.47

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-P

Invested

$804.68

Value

$760.23

PnL

-$44.44

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

sentrio

Invested

$537.81

Value

$506.33

PnL

-$31.49

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

38791873984189

Invested

$325.89

Value

$345.07

PnL

+$19.18

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$264.53

Value

$271.17

PnL

+$6.64

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

No$188.2164.7¢+$16.74

Yes$76.3134¢-$10.1

VeryLucky888

Invested

$201.1

Value

$186

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Pan9XARB<$100

Invested

$146.68

Value

$113.19

PnL

+$6.17

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

No$76.864.7¢+$9.67

Yes$3333¢-$3.5

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$98

Value

$99

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$47.14

Value

$47.48

PnL

+$0.34

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$34.45

Value

$35.42

PnL

+$0.97

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$16.56

Value

$25.38

PnL

+$8.82

Record

55%

1428-1180 (2608)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.55

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.