Will CD Leganés win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $40K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.8K

Combined PnL

$167.46

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 100¢

+81% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares39,266

Combined PnL-$632.03

No8 traders

Total Value$22.4K

Total Shares39,291

Combined PnL+$799.48

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$17.5K	$17.2K	-$365.44	49% 299-312 (611)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Noavg 55.2¢	$11.7K	$11.7K	+$106.45	48% 405-446 (851)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 55.4¢	$7.6K	$7.5K	-$52.56	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 54¢	$982.28	$1.7K	+$740.59	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 55.3¢	$412.77	$410.21	-$2.56	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
LI Limousin	Noavg 54.2¢	$734.4	$400.25	+$2.4	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
VE Venusian	Noavg 55.3¢	$353.29	$351.43	-$1.86	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Noavg 54.2¢	$271.23	$275	+$7.5	53% 1125-987 (2112)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$110	+$5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$90	-$5
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 53¢	$53.27	$55.19	-$0.48	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$269.99	$0.9	-$269.09	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yes	$0.75	$0.75	+$2.51	50% 29172-29037 (58209)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$17,539.36

Value

$17.2K

PnL

-$365.44

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

Multicoloured-Serf

Invested

$11,709.86

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$106.45

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

MadridTime

Invested

$7,560.82

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$52.56

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

Flaznorp

Invested

$982.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$740.59

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LightParadox

Invested

$412.77

Value

$410.21

PnL

-$2.56

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Limousin

Invested

$734.4

Value

$400.25

PnL

+$2.4

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Venusian

Invested

$353.29

Value

$351.43

PnL

-$1.86

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

TheComboConnoisseur

Invested

$271.23

Value

$275

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

1125-987 (2112)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Both legs:

No$10050¢+$5

Yes$10050¢-$5

sentrio<$100

Invested

$53.27

Value

$55.19

PnL

-$0.48

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$269.99

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$269.09

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$2.51

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.