Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Olimpia Milano, while the market favors Valencia (58%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Olimpia Milano vs. Valencia

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Olimpia Milano (71%) · Olimpia Milano at 42¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 5

Olimpia Milano42¢Valencia58¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Olimpia Milano

Consensus Traders

Olimpia Milano 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.0K

Combined PnL

-$213.28

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 42¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOlimpia Milano at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Olimpia Milano

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Valencia 58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Olimpia Milano42%

Valencia58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Olimpia Milano5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares11,829

Combined PnL-$16.17

Valencia2 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,926

Combined PnL-$197.12

Olimpia Milano — 71%Valencia — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Valenciaavg 64.1¢	$9.5K	$8.7K	-$805.97	46% 1540-1814 (3354)
└ Valencia leg	Valenciaavg 64.1¢	$6.9K	$6.5K	-$444.74
└ Olimpia Milano leg	Olimpia Milanoavg 46.6¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$361.23
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 44.1¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$40.67	54% 18232-15342 (33574)
└ Olimpia Milano leg	Olimpia Milanoavg 44.1¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$3.33
└ Valencia leg	Valenciaavg 56.9¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$37.35
VeryLucky888CTR	Olimpia Milanoavg 44.2¢	$3.9K	$2.4K	-$8.64	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
FL Flaznorp	Valenciaavg 65.9¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$319.12	51% 25760-24462 (50222)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR	Olimpia Milanoavg 45¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$50	51% 918-876 (1794)
CI cigarettes	Valenciaavg 50.3¢	$635.2	$757.2	+$122	53% 23528-20740 (44268)
PA panpidaras1CTR	Olimpia Milanoavg 35.1¢	$340	$396.94	+$56.94	48% 267-286 (553)
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100	Valenciaavg 48.8¢	$91.79	$97	+$5.21	82% 7330-1615 (8945)
└ Olimpia Milano leg	Olimpia Milanoavg 45.8¢	$44.42	$66.44	+$22.02
└ Valencia leg	Valenciaavg 48.8¢	$47.37	$30.55	-$16.82
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Olimpia Milanoavg 41.4¢	$105.86	$93.23	-$12.63	59% 32972-23149 (56121)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 46.5¢	$18.95	$17.11	-$1.84	50% 25827-25531 (51358)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Valencia

Invested

$9,473.95

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$805.97

Record

46%

1540-1814 (3354)

Both legs:

Valencia$6,935.5664.1¢-$444.74

Olimpia Milano$2,538.446.6¢-$361.23

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$4,972.83

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$40.67

Record

54%

18232-15342 (33574)

Both legs:

Olimpia Milano$2,593.5944.1¢-$3.33

Valencia$2,379.2456.9¢-$37.35

VeryLucky888CTR

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$3,860.05

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$8.64

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

Flaznorp

Valencia

Invested

$2,715.73

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$319.12

Record

51%

25760-24462 (50222)

GamblingOdysseyCTR

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

51%

918-876 (1794)

cigarettes

Valencia

Invested

$635.2

Value

$757.2

PnL

+$122

Record

53%

23528-20740 (44268)

panpidaras1CTR

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$340

Value

$396.94

PnL

+$56.94

Record

48%

267-286 (553)

ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100

Valencia

Invested

$91.79

Value

$97

PnL

+$5.21

Record

82%

7330-1615 (8945)

Both legs:

Olimpia Milano$44.4245.8¢+$22.02

Valencia$47.3748.8¢-$16.82

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$105.86

Value

$93.23

PnL

-$12.63

Record

59%

32972-23149 (56121)

sentrioCTR<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$18.95

Value

$17.11

PnL

-$1.84

Record

50%

25827-25531 (51358)

Research grade

AvoidOlimpia Milano at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Olimpia Milano

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Valencia 58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Olimpia Milano wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.