Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Fenerbahce, while the market favors Paris Basketball (54%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Paris Basketball vs. Fenerbahce

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Fenerbahce (40%) · Fenerbahce at 47¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 11

Paris Basketball54¢Fenerbahce46¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Fenerbahce

Consensus Traders

Fenerbahce 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

-$35.1

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 46.5¢

-24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidFenerbahce at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahce

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Paris Basketball 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Paris Basketball54%

Fenerbahce47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fenerbahce4 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares14,891

Combined PnL-$912.01

Paris Basketball6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares9,023

Combined PnL+$876.92

Fenerbahce — 40%Paris Basketball — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahce. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFenerbahce 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedFenerbahce 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Fenerbahce 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cs2.quantCTR	Fenerbahceavg 57.4¢	$5.4K	$4.4K	$-1.0K	9% 8-82 (90)
SN SnakeBall	Paris Basketballavg 42¢	$2.7K	$3.4K	+$667.13	45% 267-322 (589)
VeryLucky888CTR	Fenerbahceavg 67.4¢	$3.6K	$2.5K	+$81.23	52% 464-433 (897)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Paris Basketballavg 42.4¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$200.56	51% 1853-1805 (3658)
└ Paris Basketball leg	Paris Basketballavg 42.4¢	$604.05	$862.9	+$258.85
└ Fenerbahce leg	Fenerbahceavg 44.6¢	$510.5	$452.2	-$58.3
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Fenerbahceavg 67¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$34.13	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Paris Basketballavg 49.6¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$77.36	53% 1821-1628 (3449)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Fenerbahceavg 69¢	$552	$552	-$0	15% 145-839 (984)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Paris Basketballavg 60.6¢	$619.6	$547.31	-$72.29	28% 161-410 (571)
CI cigarettes	Paris Basketballavg 32¢	$304	$508.25	+$204.25	53% 5734-5130 (10864)
LR lryyy<$100	Paris Basketballavg 42¢	$9.24	$9.9	+$0.66	45% 234-284 (518)
MA MadridTime<$100	Paris Basketballavg 32¢	$6.16	$5.97	-$0.19	31% 385-855 (1240)

cs2.quantCTR

Fenerbahce

Invested

$5,401.55

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

8-82 (90)

SnakeBall

Paris Basketball

Invested

$2,698.65

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$667.13

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

VeryLucky888CTR

Fenerbahce

Invested

$3,625.35

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$81.23

Record

52%

464-433 (897)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Paris Basketball

Invested

$1,114.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$200.56

Record

51%

1853-1805 (3658)

Both legs:

Paris Basketball$604.0542.4¢+$258.85

Fenerbahce$510.544.6¢-$58.3

HomeRunHazardCTR

Fenerbahce

Invested

$1,143.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$34.13

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Paris Basketball

Invested

$1,043.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$77.36

Record

53%

1821-1628 (3449)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Fenerbahce

Invested

$552

Value

$552

PnL

-$0

Record

15%

145-839 (984)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Paris Basketball

Invested

$619.6

Value

$547.31

PnL

-$72.29

Record

28%

161-410 (571)

cigarettes

Paris Basketball

Invested

$304

Value

$508.25

PnL

+$204.25

Record

53%

5734-5130 (10864)

lryyy<$100

Paris Basketball

Invested

$9.24

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.66

Record

45%

234-284 (518)

MadridTime<$100

Paris Basketball

Invested

$6.16

Value

$5.97

PnL

-$0.19

Record

31%

385-855 (1240)

Research grade

AvoidFenerbahce at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahce

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Paris Basketball 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahce. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFenerbahce 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedFenerbahce 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Fenerbahce 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fenerbahce wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.