Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (47%) · Over at 39¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 8

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

-$24.91

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 38.5¢

-27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares14,358

Combined PnL-$822.79

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares8,559

Combined PnL+$797.87

Over — 47%Under — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 8

Aligned

ctrOver 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 51.3¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$27.62	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 54.2¢	$6.2K	$2.6K	-$742.7	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 48.5¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$349.16	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 43.8¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$242.78	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
GC GC-P	Underavg 45¢	$1.3K	$692.38	+$90.29	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Overavg 54.3¢	$1.1K	$524.46	-$63.67	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.3¢	$428.18	$331.25	-$96.98
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$159.9	$193.21	+$33.31
NM NM-P	Underavg 45¢	$513.72	$518.48	+$4.76	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
RN1CTR	Overavg 50¢	$402.85	$338.44	-$64.41	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
LI Limousin	Underavg 46¢	$573.54	$318.31	+$54.49	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 49.3¢	$405.62	$237.29	+$37.29	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
VE Venusian	Underavg 49.1¢	$292.82	$162.51	+$18.83	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 49.1¢	$101.06	$84.36	-$16.69	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$92.35	$77.95	-$14.41	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$56.61	$46.62	-$9.99	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50.4¢	$524.82	$10.3	-$2.21	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.93	+$0.28	48% 39763-42635 (82398)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$3,277.6

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$27.62

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$6,160.07

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$742.7

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,301.35

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$349.16

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,153.79

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$242.78

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$1,301.61

Value

$692.38

PnL

+$90.29

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

sentrioARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,121.8

Value

$524.46

PnL

-$63.67

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Over$428.1854.3¢-$96.98

Under$159.948¢+$33.31

NM-P

Under

Invested

$513.72

Value

$518.48

PnL

+$4.76

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$402.85

Value

$338.44

PnL

-$64.41

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$573.54

Value

$318.31

PnL

+$54.49

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$405.62

Value

$237.29

PnL

+$37.29

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$292.82

Value

$162.51

PnL

+$18.83

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$101.06

Value

$84.36

PnL

-$16.69

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92.35

Value

$77.95

PnL

-$14.41

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.61

Value

$46.62

PnL

-$9.99

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$524.82

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$2.21

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.28

Record

48%

39763-42635 (82398)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 8

Aligned

ctrOver 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.