Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 61¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$21.74

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 60.5¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,275

Combined PnL-$371.67

Yes6 traders

Total Value$874.18

Total Shares2,209

Combined PnL+$393.41

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

193h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
paddaa	Noavg 72.1¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	-$359.39	56% 836-645 (1481)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 67.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$24.77	18% 365-1641 (2006)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.8¢	$974.34	$869.07	-$105.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.8¢	$484.87	$567.4	+$80.47
Udonsan	Noavg 60.4¢	$729.07	$729.75	+$0.68	79% 250-67 (317)
AR Arman2CTR	Yesavg 28.9¢	$700	$432.82	+$311.36	58% 332-242 (574)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR	Yesavg 30.2¢	$211.83	$276.78	+$64.96	69% 156-69 (225)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 65.7¢	$178.26	$166.36	-$11.91	36% 16080-28084 (44164)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$42.69	$44.38	+$1.69	40% 704-1062 (1766)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 64¢	$44.8	$42.7	-$1.05	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.7¢	$38.78	$40.2	+$1.42	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
RelaccsedCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$38.5	$40	+$1.5	56% 1213-967 (2180)
CunglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$25	$39.99	+$12.5	63% 672-398 (1070)

paddaa

Invested

$2,688

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$359.39

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$1,488.58

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$24.77

Record

18%

365-1641 (2006)

Both legs:

No$974.3467.8¢-$105.25

Yes$484.8733.8¢+$80.47

Udonsan

Invested

$729.07

Value

$729.75

PnL

+$0.68

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

Arman2CTR

Yes

Invested

$700

Value

$432.82

PnL

+$311.36

Record

58%

332-242 (574)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR

Yes

Invested

$211.83

Value

$276.78

PnL

+$64.96

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$178.26

Value

$166.36

PnL

-$11.91

Record

36%

16080-28084 (44164)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.69

Value

$44.38

PnL

+$1.69

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$44.8

Value

$42.7

PnL

-$1.05

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.78

Value

$40.2

PnL

+$1.42

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

RelaccsedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.5

Value

$40

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

CunglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$39.99

PnL

+$12.5

Record

63%

672-398 (1070)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

193h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.