Consensus PnL $37K · win rate 64% (375–210, n=585) · hand-picked wallet · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$37.5K
Record
375W / 210L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 585 settled
Batting Avg
52.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#976
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
32,482
Markets
1,192
Volume
$4.0M
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 26 on the consensus side (42%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $6.6K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $3.8K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $3.5K · now 72¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $1.9K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 71¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No $1.4K · now 83¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (58% of 33)
- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?No $679 · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No $656 · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (71% of 21)
Specialties
782 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 60¢- Elections
+3 pts
side won 78% of 55 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +1%
- Finance
+11 pts
side won 59% of 22 · avg entry 48¢
ROI −1%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 79% of 19 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 49% of 359 at an average 50¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 9% of 255)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 37% of 63)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 61% of 49)
- 70¢ and up: 53%(won 92% of 415)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.