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6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$10.7K
-$783.48
75.6¢ → 87.5¢
+16% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
2096h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RememberAmalek | Noavg 69.5¢ | $3.2K | $4.0K | +$802.78 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
 Valen9CTR | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $2.8K | $1.7K | $-1.0K | 60% 407-274 (681) |
 Mr-Krabs | Noavg 87.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$2.04 | 78% 574-165 (739) |
HO hopedieslast | Noavg 83.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$68.83 | 59% 118-81 (199) |
 eightpenguinsCTR | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $93.7 | $839.56 | -$741.05 | 52% 304-281 (585) |
 tetrase | Noavg 64¢ | $320 | $437.5 | +$117.5 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
CA cashyCTR | Yesavg 16.9¢ | $235.92 | $222.98 | -$61.71 | 71% 611-251 (862) |
BR browne | Noavg 65.2¢ | $124.59 | $167.11 | +$42.52 | 71% 173-70 (243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $59.32 | $68.68 | +$9.36 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 Warren-BuffettCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $25.77 | $12.07 | -$13.71 | 65% 862-465 (1327) |
RememberAmalekInvested
$3,186.6
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$802.78
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Valen9CTRInvested
$2,751.66
Value
$1.7K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
60%
407-274 (681)
Mr-KrabsInvested
$1,648.95
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$2.04
Record
78%
574-165 (739)
Invested
$1,501.69
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$68.83
Record
59%
118-81 (199)
eightpenguinsCTRInvested
$93.7
Value
$839.56
PnL
-$741.05
Record
52%
304-281 (585)
tetraseInvested
$320
Value
$437.5
PnL
+$117.5
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Invested
$235.92
Value
$222.98
PnL
-$61.71
Record
71%
611-251 (862)
Invested
$124.59
Value
$167.11
PnL
+$42.52
Record
71%
173-70 (243)
Invested
$59.32
Value
$68.68
PnL
+$9.36
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Warren-BuffettCTR<$100Invested
$25.77
Value
$12.07
PnL
-$13.71
Record
65%
862-465 (1327)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.