Consensus PnL $50K · win rate 81% (385–91, n=476) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$49.8K
Record
385W / 91L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 476 settled
Batting Avg
70.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#403
Source
PM monthly #1000 + pinned
Trades
18,818
Markets
818
Volume
$4.7M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 14 on the consensus side (93%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $32K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $15K · now 84¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $5.2K · now 74¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (53% of 31)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No $4.4K · now 69¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (58% of 38)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $2.7K · now 73¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (62% of 42)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $2.3K · now 86¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (87% of 47)
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?No $1.7K · now 88¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?No $1.5K · now 89¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (50% of 14)
Specialties
697 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 80¢- Tech
+15 pts
side won 100% of 22 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +8%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 83% of 384 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+11 pts
side won 94% of 16 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +12%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 77% of 52 at an average 83¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 9% of 43)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 29% of 31)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 51% of 51)
- 70¢ and up: 82%(won 94% of 572)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.