Consensus PnL $321K · win rate 66% (262–133, n=395) · was PM monthly #714 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$321.4K
Record
262W / 133L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 395 settled
Batting Avg
55.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#891
Source
PM monthly #714
Trades
705
Markets
507
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 10 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $10K · now 44¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $3.6K · now 84¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $2.5K · now 74¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (78% of 27)
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Yes $1.5K · now 26¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (69% of 14)
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Yes $840 · now 13¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No $795 · now 1¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $671 · now 44¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (63% of 64)
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes $388 · now 9¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
377 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 49¢- Entertainment
+43 pts
side won 96% of 45 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +41%
- Tech
+36 pts
side won 79% of 43 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +25%
- Geopolitics
+27 pts
side won 76% of 98 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +20%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 45% of 11 at an average 47¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −22%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 44% of 96)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 72% of 96)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 87% of 116)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 94% of 69)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.