Consensus PnL $562K · win rate 68% (273–131, n=404) · PM monthly #817 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$561.6K
Record
273W / 131L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 404 settled
Batting Avg
73.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#823
Source
PM monthly #817 + pinned
Trades
23,847
Markets
949
Volume
$6.4M
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 20 on the consensus side (35%)- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $13K · now 96¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $10K · now 20¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $8.6K · now 71¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?Yes $3.3K · now 94¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $3.0K · now 6¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes $2.7K · now 14¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $2.2K · now 6¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes $1.9K · now 18¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
706 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 57¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 66% of 562 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +7%
- Soccer
+18 pts
side won 45% of 22 · avg entry 28¢
ROI +12%
- Politics
+8 pts
side won 64% of 33 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 40% of 15 at an average 49¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI +6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 12% of 204)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 50% of 88)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 77% of 87)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 96% of 327)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.