Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 62¢ · $10K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$266.33

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 61.5¢

-12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,549

Combined PnL-$124.79

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares7,008

Combined PnL+$391.12

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

319h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 70.9¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	-$106.57	18% 365-1640 (2005)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.9¢	$3.7K	$3.2K	-$506.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.9¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$399.9
88 881112	Noavg 69.8¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$29.07	38% 567-944 (1511)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 32.3¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$228.71	56% 836-645 (1481)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 68.9¢	$796	$741.03	-$54.97	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
MEPPCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$299.36	$370.49	+$71.13	64% 633-352 (985)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$301.28	$339.19	+$37.92	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 73.1¢	$256	$215.25	-$40.75	38% 20-32 (52)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 33.1¢	$136.16	$179.14	+$42.99	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$157.34	$170	+$0.16	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.8¢	$64.17	$74.38	+$10.21	69% 404-180 (584)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$5,479.07

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$106.57

Record

18%

365-1640 (2005)

Both legs:

No$3,745.0870.9¢-$506.46

Yes$1,632.2230.9¢+$399.9

881112

Invested

$1,452.63

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$29.07

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,020.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$228.71

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$796

Value

$741.03

PnL

-$54.97

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

MEPPCTR

Yes

Invested

$299.36

Value

$370.49

PnL

+$71.13

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$301.28

Value

$339.19

PnL

+$37.92

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$256

Value

$215.25

PnL

-$40.75

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$136.16

Value

$179.14

PnL

+$42.99

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$157.34

Value

$170

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.17

Value

$74.38

PnL

+$10.21

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

319h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.5%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.