Will Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC win on 2026-11-01?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$4.2K
$1.2K
47.7¢ → 84.5¢
+77% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 58.9¢ | $1.8K | $2.3K | +$537.16 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 38.8¢ | $681.31 | $1.4K | +$669.66 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 38.9¢ | $106.84 | $212.89 | +$106.05 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 30.7¢ | $189.19 | $117.79 | -$48.78 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 31¢ | $124.62 | $86.43 | -$38.19 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $67 | $56 | -$11 | 63% 1209-696 (1905) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $33.32 | $49.26 | +$15.94 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $22.11 | $27.47 | +$5.36 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.8 | +$0.05 | 54% 6435-5416 (11851) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $4.68 | $3.24 | -$1.43 | 51% 6082-5802 (11884) |
RN1Invested
$1,800.85
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$537.16
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$681.31
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$669.66
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$106.84
Value
$212.89
PnL
+$106.05
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
VeryLucky888Invested
$189.19
Value
$117.79
PnL
-$48.78
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$124.62
Value
$86.43
PnL
-$38.19
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$67
Value
$56
PnL
-$11
Record
63%
1209-696 (1905)
Invested
$33.32
Value
$49.26
PnL
+$15.94
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
poshposh<$100Invested
$22.11
Value
$27.47
PnL
+$5.36
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
6435-5416 (11851)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$4.68
Value
$3.24
PnL
-$1.43
Record
51%
6082-5802 (11884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.