Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 84¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$23.9K
$566.99
80.3¢ → 83.5¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
66h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classified | Yesavg 80.2¢ | $15.2K | $15.7K | +$425.08 | 58% 844-614 (1458) |
 BigMackyG | Yesavg 81.6¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | +$57.25 | 20% 108-423 (531) |
 paddaa | Yesavg 76.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$70.59 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
 eCash | Yesavg 78.5¢ | $799.66 | $835.38 | +$51 | 68% 331-155 (486) |
 StupidMonkeyyyCTR | Noavg 20¢ | $335.63 | $318.94 | -$16.69 | 50% 147-145 (292) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 20¢ | $222.55 | $196.55 | -$26.01 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
GH ghorrock | Yesavg 78.4¢ | $104.38 | $109.92 | +$5.54 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 81.6¢ | $47.24 | $47.48 | +$0.24 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
classifiedInvested
$15,246.42
Value
$15.7K
PnL
+$425.08
Record
58%
844-614 (1458)
BigMackyGInvested
$5,420.36
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$57.25
Record
20%
108-423 (531)
paddaaInvested
$1,126.14
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$70.59
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
eCashInvested
$799.66
Value
$835.38
PnL
+$51
Record
68%
331-155 (486)
StupidMonkeyyyCTRInvested
$335.63
Value
$318.94
PnL
-$16.69
Record
50%
147-145 (292)
Invested
$222.55
Value
$196.55
PnL
-$26.01
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$104.38
Value
$109.92
PnL
+$5.54
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$47.24
Value
$47.48
PnL
+$0.24
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.