Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 91¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 6

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$24.0K

Combined PnL

$320.44

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 90.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 91%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$22.7K

Total Shares25,214

Combined PnL+$498.73

No3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares12,824

Combined PnL-$178.29

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mr.ozi	Yesavg 88.5¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$101.7	68% 1240-582 (1822)
MEPP	Yesavg 85.8¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$210.13	64% 633-352 (985)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Yesavg 87¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$133.83	63% 166-99 (265)
LU LulaVaiPerder	Yesavg 90.1¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$5.09	76% 318-102 (420)
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 88.2¢	$3.9K	$3.1K	+$58.37	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 87.5¢	$3.7K	$1.2K	-$0.43	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 10¢	$571.4	$571.4	+$0	47% 476-535 (1011)
classifiedCTR	Noavg 10.8¢	$1.8K	$488.78	-$100.52	58% 844-614 (1458)
CarCTR	Noavg 13¢	$322.19	$244.42	-$77.77	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 89.8¢	$134.36	$134.6	+$0.23	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

mr.ozi

Yes

Invested

$6,025.11

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$101.7

Record

68%

1240-582 (1822)

MEPP

Yes

Invested

$4,282.55

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$210.13

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Yes

Invested

$3,881.21

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$133.83

Record

63%

166-99 (265)

LulaVaiPerder

Yes

Invested

$3,650

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$5.09

Record

76%

318-102 (420)

Tenebrus7

Yes

Invested

$3,911.88

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$58.37

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$3,733.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$0.43

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$571.4

Value

$571.4

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

classifiedCTR

Invested

$1,847.83

Value

$488.78

PnL

-$100.52

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

CarCTR

Invested

$322.19

Value

$244.42

PnL

-$77.77

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$134.36

Value

$134.6

PnL

+$0.23

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 91%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.5%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.