Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 88¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$12.2K
$53.55
82.9¢ → 87.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
64h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classified | Yesavg 82.7¢ | $5.8K | $5.9K | +$117.5 | 58% 844-614 (1458) |
 Tenebrus7 | Yesavg 83.6¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$39.33 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
 StupidMonkeyyy | Yesavg 80.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$40.16 | 50% 147-145 (292) |
 BigMackyG | Yesavg 85¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$35.54 | 20% 108-423 (531) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 16.8¢ | $192.63 | $151 | -$41.63 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
88 881112CTR | Noavg 20¢ | $160 | $96 | -$60 | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 83.4¢ | $32.59 | $34.3 | +$1.71 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $7.64 | $7.25 | -$0.39 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
classifiedInvested
$5,818.7
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$117.5
Record
58%
844-614 (1458)
Tenebrus7Invested
$3,327.37
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$39.33
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
StupidMonkeyyyInvested
$1,424.86
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$40.16
Record
50%
147-145 (292)
BigMackyGInvested
$1,208.36
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$35.54
Record
20%
108-423 (531)
Invested
$192.63
Value
$151
PnL
-$41.63
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$160
Value
$96
PnL
-$60
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
Invested
$32.59
Value
$34.3
PnL
+$1.71
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$7.64
Value
$7.25
PnL
-$0.39
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.