Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (84%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 17¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$34.45

Smart Money Entry

24.7¢ → 16.5¢

-33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$185.1

Total Shares252

Combined PnL+$4.87

Over6 traders

Total Value$192.02

Total Shares907

Combined PnL-$39.33

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 70.4¢	$773.36	$820.36	+$47	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ Under leg	Underavg 70.4¢	$599.8	$643.18	+$43.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 24¢	$173.56	$177.17	+$3.62
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 28¢	$634.41	$712.76	+$78.35	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ Over leg	Overavg 28¢	$1.1K	$510.16	+$56.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 77.3¢	$180.94	$202.6	+$21.66
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 71¢	$93.59	$92.94	-$0.65	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$86.09	$85.26	+$0.62	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 70.5¢	$46.15	$49.42	+$3.27	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 26.4¢	$89.31	$45.62	-$43.69	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 24.7¢	$28.35	$31.05	+$2.7	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
RN1<$100	Underavg 73¢	$20.53	$22.64	+$2.11	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$15.39	$20.71	+$5.33	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Underavg 71¢	$19.96	$20.1	+$0.14	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$12.78	$8.9	-$3.88	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$0.88	$0.47	-$0.41	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$773.36

Value

$820.36

PnL

+$47

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

Under$599.870.4¢+$43.38

Over$173.5624¢+$3.62

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$634.41

Value

$712.76

PnL

+$78.35

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

Over$1,057.5628¢+$56.69

Under$180.9477.3¢+$21.66

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$93.59

Value

$92.94

PnL

-$0.65

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$86.09

Value

$85.26

PnL

+$0.62

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$46.15

Value

$49.42

PnL

+$3.27

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89.31

Value

$45.62

PnL

-$43.69

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.35

Value

$31.05

PnL

+$2.7

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$20.53

Value

$22.64

PnL

+$2.11

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.39

Value

$20.71

PnL

+$5.33

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

darkumbreon88<$100

Under

Invested

$19.96

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$0.14

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.78

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$3.88

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$0.41

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.