Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-11-07?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 60¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 7

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$23.93

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 60¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,771

Combined PnL+$28.25

Yes3 traders

Total Value$174.31

Total Shares432

Combined PnL-$4.32

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$5.67	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.5¢	$750.26	$769.5	+$19.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$366.23	$366.23	-$13.57
nigiri99	Noavg 61.2¢	$803.56	$787.8	-$6.57	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 60.2¢	$719.22	$716.72	+$5.97	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
NM NM-P	Noavg 60¢	$600	$600	+$0	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-P	Noavg 60¢	$726.46	$484.92	+$11.78	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 61.2¢	$476.98	$467.63	+$3.9	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 58.7¢	$307.87	$314.84	+$6.97	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
CA Cannae	Noavg 58.7¢	$185.91	$190.19	+$6.12	53% 16963-15085 (32048)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$142.56	$138.99	-$3.56	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$26.91	$26.03	-$0.16	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.2¢	$10.29	$9.29	-$0.6	45% 95-117 (212)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 57.1¢	$4.42	$4.52	+$0.09	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$3.03	$3	-$0.03	50% 21821-22062 (43883)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,113.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$5.67

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

No$750.2658.5¢+$19.24

Yes$366.2340¢-$13.57

nigiri99

Invested

$803.56

Value

$787.8

PnL

-$6.57

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

LightParadox

Invested

$719.22

Value

$716.72

PnL

+$5.97

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

NM-P

Invested

$600

Value

$600

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-P

Invested

$726.46

Value

$484.92

PnL

+$11.78

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$476.98

Value

$467.63

PnL

+$3.9

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

Flaznorp

Invested

$307.87

Value

$314.84

PnL

+$6.97

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Cannae

Invested

$185.91

Value

$190.19

PnL

+$6.12

Record

53%

16963-15085 (32048)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$142.56

Value

$138.99

PnL

-$3.56

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.91

Value

$26.03

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.29

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$0.6

Record

45%

95-117 (212)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$3.03

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.