Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-11-08?
2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 66¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
12
Yes 17%
$13.8K
$95.04
67.1¢ → 65.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 67¢ | $6.9K | $6.7K | -$153.55 | 64% 2043-1136 (3179) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 33.2¢ | $5.2K | $5.4K | +$211.96 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
DO DolphinBaller | Yesavg 68¢ | $679.98 | $674.98 | -$5 | 43% 115-152 (267) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 32¢ | $319.98 | $324.98 | +$5 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 32.2¢ | $194.6 | $208.64 | +$14.04 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
VE VenusianCTR | Noavg 33.1¢ | $183.66 | $180.4 | -$3.26 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
SE sentrioCTR | Noavg 32¢ | $142.48 | $142.48 | +$2.23 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.1¢ | $54.37 | $53.4 | -$0.97 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.1¢ | $49.63 | $48 | -$0.75 | 48% 3364-3590 (6954) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.1¢ | $34.96 | $34.34 | -$0.62 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 34.1¢ | $3.41 | $3.45 | +$0.04 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 31.5¢ | $567.81 | $0.48 | +$25.92 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
Invested
$6,858.62
Value
$6.7K
PnL
-$153.55
Record
64%
2043-1136 (3179)
Invested
$5,179.64
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$211.96
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$679.98
Value
$674.98
PnL
-$5
Record
43%
115-152 (267)
Invested
$319.98
Value
$324.98
PnL
+$5
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$194.6
Value
$208.64
PnL
+$14.04
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$183.66
Value
$180.4
PnL
-$3.26
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$142.48
Value
$142.48
PnL
+$2.23
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$54.37
Value
$53.4
PnL
-$0.97
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$49.63
Value
$48
PnL
-$0.75
Record
48%
3364-3590 (6954)
Invested
$34.96
Value
$34.34
PnL
-$0.62
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$3.41
Value
$3.45
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$567.81
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$25.92
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.