Club León FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 0.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 9

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares9,672

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Under7 traders

Total Value$768.68

Total Shares9,448

Combined PnL-$881.69

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 95.1¢	$8.3K	$4.5K	$-3.8K	90% 101-11 (112)
GA gaclfz	Overavg 100¢	$827.05	$826.6	-$0.45	74% 1375-488 (1863)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 18.8¢	$213.11	$550.93	+$337.82	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 5¢	$22.04	$213.81	+$191.77	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
RN1	Overavg 88.5¢	$153.02	$111.92	-$41.1	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 76.9¢	$8.25	$10.72	+$2.47	56% 10315-8130 (18445)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 21.8¢	$818.47	$1.87	-$816.6	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 9.2¢	$272.9	$1.48	-$271.42	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 29¢	$205.32	$0.35	-$204.97	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 26¢	$114.32	$0.22	-$114.1	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$4.2	$0.01	-$4.19	47% 2157-2403 (4560)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$8,294.34

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

90%

101-11 (112)

gaclfz

Over

Invested

$827.05

Value

$826.6

PnL

-$0.45

Record

74%

1375-488 (1863)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$213.11

Value

$550.93

PnL

+$337.82

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$22.04

Value

$213.81

PnL

+$191.77

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

RN1

Over

Invested

$153.02

Value

$111.92

PnL

-$41.1

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$8.25

Value

$10.72

PnL

+$2.47

Record

56%

10315-8130 (18445)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$818.47

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$816.6

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$272.9

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$271.42

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$205.32

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$204.97

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$114.32

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$114.1

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.19

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.