Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (60%) · Hawks at 53¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 5

Hawks53¢Wizards47¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.8K

Combined PnL

$801.37

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 52.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks53%

Wizards48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks6 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares35,165

Combined PnL+$853.07

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,151

Combined PnL-$51.7

Hawks — 60%Wizards — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpHawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWizards 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Hawksavg 49¢	$12.9K	$13.7K	+$787.84	48% 303-327 (630)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Hawksavg 51.2¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$45	58% 276-201 (477)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Hawksavg 51.2¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$31.49	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 51.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$31.49
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 47¢	$844.71	$844.71	+$0
SE sentrioCTR	Wizardsavg 49.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$51.55	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
FO forget4	Hawksavg 52¢	$770.49	$777.89	+$7.41	44% 695-899 (1594)
RN1	Hawksavg 51.1¢	$418.71	$426.21	+$7.5	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
NM NM-P	Hawksavg 52¢	$260	$262.5	+$2.5	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Wizardsavg 47¢	$253.8	$253.8	+$0	60% 4421-2917 (7338)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Wizardsavg 47¢	$220.43	$220.43	+$0	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
HE Herdonia<$100	Hawksavg 49.2¢	$50.24	$53.06	+$2.82	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.35	-$0.15	52% 8584-7828 (16412)

Multicoloured-Serf

Hawks

Invested

$12,868.13

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$787.84

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

MAGATheeStallion

Hawks

Invested

$3,075

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$45

Record

58%

276-201 (477)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$2,978.63

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$31.49

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

Both legs:

Hawks$2,133.9251.2¢+$31.49

Wizards$844.7147¢+$0

sentrioCTR

Wizards

Invested

$1,077.24

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$51.55

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

forget4

Hawks

Invested

$770.49

Value

$777.89

PnL

+$7.41

Record

44%

695-899 (1594)

RN1

Hawks

Invested

$418.71

Value

$426.21

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

NM-P

Hawks

Invested

$260

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

SunlineTickerCTR

Wizards

Invested

$253.8

Value

$253.8

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

4421-2917 (7338)

FlaznorpCTR

Wizards

Invested

$220.43

Value

$220.43

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Herdonia<$100

Hawks

Invested

$50.24

Value

$53.06

PnL

+$2.82

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpHawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWizards 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.