Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Wizards (56%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Hawks (-3.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (60%) · Hawks at 45¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 5

Hawks45¢Wizards55¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$29.38

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 44.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hawks45%

Wizards56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares9,290

Combined PnL+$40.02

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$387.73

Total Shares699

Combined PnL-$10.64

Hawks — 60%Wizards — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Hawksavg 44¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$26.12	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 44¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$37.55
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 56.2¢	$912.09	$900.66	-$11.43
HI hi774cCTR	Hawksavg 44¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$35.54	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Hawksavg 44.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$11.65	60% 4421-2917 (7338)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 44.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$5.63
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 56.2¢	$458.9	$452.88	-$6.02
NM NM-PARB<$100	Wizardsavg 56¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$15	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 56¢	$560	$555	-$5
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 45.5¢	$455	$445	-$10
HE HerdoniaCTR	Hawksavg 47¢	$418.89	$424.7	+$5.81	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
OM omnibus-076daa	Wizardsavg 57.2¢	$341.51	$331.18	-$10.34	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hawksavg 45.5¢	$312.81	$312.96	+$0.15	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 45.5¢	$177.81	$174	-$3.81
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 53.9¢	$135	$138.97	+$3.97
GC GC-PCTR	Hawksavg 44¢	$220	$222.5	+$2.5	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hawksavg 44¢	$217.36	$219.83	+$2.47	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
RN1CTR	Hawksavg 46.4¢	$136.46	$127.93	-$8.53	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100	Hawksavg 43¢	$63.99	$66.22	+$2.23	44% 605-765 (1370)
nigiri99<$100	Wizardsavg 56¢	$45.92	$45.51	-$0.41	46% 8410-9880 (18290)
GH ghorrock<$100	Wizardsavg 54¢	$8.25	$8.32	+$0.08	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Wizardsavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.73	+$0.02	52% 8584-7828 (16412)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$4,303.31

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$26.12

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

Both legs:

Hawks$3,391.2144¢+$37.55

Wizards$912.0956.2¢-$11.43

hi774cCTR

Hawks

Invested

$3,127.56

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$35.54

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1,979.21

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$11.65

Record

60%

4421-2917 (7338)

Both legs:

Hawks$1,520.3244.7¢-$5.63

Wizards$458.956.2¢-$6.02

NM-PARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,015

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$15

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Invested

$418.89

Value

$424.7

PnL

+$5.81

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

omnibus-076daa

Wizards

Invested

$341.51

Value

$331.18

PnL

-$10.34

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$312.81

Value

$312.96

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Both legs:

Hawks$177.8145.5¢-$3.81

Wizards$13553.9¢+$3.97

GC-PCTR

Hawks

Invested

$220

Value

$222.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

FlaznorpCTR

Hawks

Invested

$217.36

Value

$219.83

PnL

+$2.47

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

RN1CTR

Hawks

Invested

$136.46

Value

$127.93

PnL

-$8.53

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

BreakTheBankCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$63.99

Value

$66.22

PnL

+$2.23

Record

44%

605-765 (1370)

nigiri99<$100

Wizards

Invested

$45.92

Value

$45.51

PnL

-$0.41

Record

46%

8410-9880 (18290)

ghorrock<$100

Wizards

Invested

$8.25

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

ameisgoat11<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.