Nets vs. Mavericks

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (53%) · Mavericks at 75¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9

Nets26¢Mavericks74¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$31.26

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 74.5¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nets26%

Mavericks75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,171

Combined PnL-$47.49

Nets7 traders

Total Value$805.65

Total Shares3,449

Combined PnL+$16.23

Mavericks — 53%Nets — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Netsavg 21.6¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$252.83	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 21.6¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$238.34
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 73¢	$700.53	$715.01	+$14.48
VeryLucky888	Mavericksavg 77¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$48.49	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
TA takeormakeCTR	Netsavg 22¢	$499.83	$488.47	-$11.36	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
DA darkumbreon88	Mavericksavg 74.1¢	$169.72	$170.55	+$0.83	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
VE VenusianCTR	Netsavg 22.2¢	$105.15	$120.85	+$15.7	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Netsavg 23.4¢	$92.07	$98.47	+$6.4	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
38 38791873984189<$100	Mavericksavg 78¢	$95.63	$96.25	+$0.61	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Netsavg 24¢	$79.86	$84.85	+$4.99	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 75.8¢	$70.55	$47.22	+$0.45	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SE sentrio<$100	Mavericksavg 75.7¢	$39.55	$38.92	-$0.63	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Netsavg 24.1¢	$9.14	$9.66	+$0.52	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Mavericksavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.73	-$0.17	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
NM NM-P<$100	Mavericksavg 78¢	$3.55	$3.52	-$0.02	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Netsavg 31¢	$2.17	$2.07	-$0.1	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
AC Aceplus3<$100	Mavericksavg 78.9¢	$2.05	$2	-$0.05	58% 41-30 (71)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Netsavg 24¢	$1.21	$1.29	+$0.08	49% 1800-1902 (3702)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$2,032.81

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$252.83

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Both legs:

Nets$1,332.2821.6¢+$238.34

Mavericks$700.5373¢+$14.48

VeryLucky888

Mavericks

Invested

$1,540

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$48.49

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

takeormakeCTR

Nets

Invested

$499.83

Value

$488.47

PnL

-$11.36

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

darkumbreon88

Mavericks

Invested

$169.72

Value

$170.55

PnL

+$0.83

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

VenusianCTR

Nets

Invested

$105.15

Value

$120.85

PnL

+$15.7

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$92.07

Value

$98.47

PnL

+$6.4

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

38791873984189<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$95.63

Value

$96.25

PnL

+$0.61

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

LimousinCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$79.86

Value

$84.85

PnL

+$4.99

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$70.55

Value

$47.22

PnL

+$0.45

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

sentrio<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$39.55

Value

$38.92

PnL

-$0.63

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$9.14

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$0.52

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

ameisgoat11<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.17

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

NM-P<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$0.02

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

OddstormCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

Aceplus3<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

41-30 (71)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.