Spread: Celtics (-9.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (38%) · Celtics at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Celtics94¢Bucks6¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 38%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$407.25

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 93.5¢

+53% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics94%

Bucks7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,235

Combined PnL+$491.41

Bucks8 traders

Total Value$195.87

Total Shares1,348

Combined PnL-$84.16

Celtics — 38%Bucks — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Celticsavg 60.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$123.3	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
65 6512395314597884	Celticsavg 76.6¢	$963.37	$1.0K	+$63.07	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 45¢	$231.3	$364.94	+$133.64	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 41.5¢	$184.73	$305.56	+$120.84	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
38 38791873984189	Celticsavg 55.2¢	$79.32	$129.89	+$50.57	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
AN Anon455CTR	Bucksavg 30.4¢	$143.77	$99.31	-$44.46	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bucksavg 42.4¢	$34.82	$39.23	+$4.41	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Bucksavg 13.4¢	$78.55	$38.07	-$40.48	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Bucksavg 5¢	$10	$8	-$2	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bucksavg 38¢	$4.63	$4.82	+$0.19	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Bucksavg 37¢	$2.92	$3.03	+$0.12	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Bucksavg 37¢	$1.71	$1.79	+$0.07	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Bucksavg 47¢	$3.64	$1.62	-$2.01	46% 2028-2381 (4409)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$1,104.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$123.3

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

6512395314597884

Celtics

Invested

$963.37

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$63.07

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$231.3

Value

$364.94

PnL

+$133.64

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$184.73

Value

$305.56

PnL

+$120.84

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

38791873984189

Celtics

Invested

$79.32

Value

$129.89

PnL

+$50.57

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Anon455CTR

Bucks

Invested

$143.77

Value

$99.31

PnL

-$44.46

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$34.82

Value

$39.23

PnL

+$4.41

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$78.55

Value

$38.07

PnL

-$40.48

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$10

Value

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2.92

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

hi774cCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0.07

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$3.64

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$2.01

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.