Spread: Celtics (-9.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (78%) · Celtics at 78¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Celtics78¢76ers22¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

-$103.55

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 78¢

+93% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics78%

76ers22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics7 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares9,307

Combined PnL+$149.7

76ers2 traders

Total Value$216.6

Total Shares878

Combined PnL-$253.24

Celtics — 78%76ers — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Celticsavg 40.2¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$11.12	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	76ersavg 60.9¢	$597.33	$808.46	+$211.13	56% 502-393 (895)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 60.9¢	$447.33	$528.46	+$81.13
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 15¢	$150	$280	+$130
TA takeormake	Celticsavg 42.8¢	$567.71	$503.5	-$64.21	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
VE Venusian	Celticsavg 41.1¢	$232.38	$440.75	+$208.37	28% 304-772 (1076)
RN1ARB<$100	76ersavg 58.9¢	$360.93	$396.55	+$35.62	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 58.9¢	$290.09	$295.35	+$5.26
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 28¢	$70.84	$101.2	+$30.36
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 53.3¢	$442.63	$182.82	-$259.81	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
LI LightParadox	Celticsavg 42¢	$66.65	$123.78	+$57.13	28% 298-765 (1063)
LI Limousin	Celticsavg 42¢	$133.18	$118.91	-$14.27	29% 313-784 (1097)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Celticsavg 28.9¢	$87.97	$85.17	-$2.8	54% 217-188 (405)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Celticsavg 46¢	$59.8	$36.4	-$23.4	30% 134-317 (451)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	76ersavg 58¢	$27.21	$33.78	+$6.57	35% 266-489 (755)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Celtics

Invested

$2,613.73

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$11.12

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$597.33

Value

$808.46

PnL

+$211.13

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Both legs:

76ers$447.3360.9¢+$81.13

Celtics$15015¢+$130

takeormake

Celtics

Invested

$567.71

Value

$503.5

PnL

-$64.21

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Venusian

Celtics

Invested

$232.38

Value

$440.75

PnL

+$208.37

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

RN1ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$360.93

Value

$396.55

PnL

+$35.62

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

76ers$290.0958.9¢+$5.26

Celtics$70.8428¢+$30.36

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$442.63

Value

$182.82

PnL

-$259.81

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

LightParadox

Celtics

Invested

$66.65

Value

$123.78

PnL

+$57.13

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

Limousin

Celtics

Invested

$133.18

Value

$118.91

PnL

-$14.27

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Celtics

Invested

$87.97

Value

$85.17

PnL

-$2.8

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

justaluckydude<$100

Celtics

Invested

$59.8

Value

$36.4

PnL

-$23.4

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

sentrioCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$27.21

Value

$33.78

PnL

+$6.57

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.