Spread: Celtics (-1.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (67%) · Celtics at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Celtics51¢Raptors49¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 67%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$3.71

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 50.5¢

-21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics51%

Raptors50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,244

Combined PnL-$78.08

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,602

Combined PnL+$81.79

Celtics — 67%Raptors — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Celticsavg 65.9¢	$1.0K	$953.92	-$52.59	61% 928-594 (1522)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Raptorsavg 34¢	$545.97	$596.99	+$51.02	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Raptorsavg 34¢	$192.33	$203.8	+$11.47	31% 406-905 (1311)
38 38791873984189	Celticsavg 62.9¢	$262.71	$202.98	-$26.5	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
SE sentrioCTR	Raptorsavg 34¢	$161.72	$178.53	+$16.81	39% 382-610 (992)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 64¢	$91.59	$91.75	+$0.16	49% 684-724 (1408)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 49.6¢	$84.84	$87.32	+$2.48	55% 718-583 (1301)
VE Venusian<$100	Celticsavg 50¢	$66.38	$67.04	+$0.66	31% 407-907 (1314)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Celticsavg 62¢	$39.94	$40.26	+$0.32	46% 292-339 (631)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Celticsavg 48¢	$14.17	$15.94	+$1.77	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
RN1<$100	Celticsavg 61¢	$17.54	$15.85	-$1.69	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
FO forecastication4<$100	Celticsavg 64¢	$4.46	$4.25	-$0.21	18% 49-220 (269)

darkumbreon88

Celtics

Invested

$1,006.52

Value

$953.92

PnL

-$52.59

Record

61%

928-594 (1522)

FlaznorpCTR

Raptors

Invested

$545.97

Value

$596.99

PnL

+$51.02

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

LightParadoxCTR

Raptors

Invested

$192.33

Value

$203.8

PnL

+$11.47

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

38791873984189

Celtics

Invested

$262.71

Value

$202.98

PnL

-$26.5

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

sentrioCTR

Raptors

Invested

$161.72

Value

$178.53

PnL

+$16.81

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$91.59

Value

$91.75

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$84.84

Value

$87.32

PnL

+$2.48

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

Venusian<$100

Celtics

Invested

$66.38

Value

$67.04

PnL

+$0.66

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

SnakeBall<$100

Celtics

Invested

$39.94

Value

$40.26

PnL

+$0.32

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Celtics

Invested

$14.17

Value

$15.94

PnL

+$1.77

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

RN1<$100

Celtics

Invested

$17.54

Value

$15.85

PnL

-$1.69

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

forecastication4<$100

Celtics

Invested

$4.46

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.21

Record

18%

49-220 (269)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.