Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 40¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 12

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 40¢

-27% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares10,376

Combined PnL+$53.68

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares11,695

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 45¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$18.59	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 55¢	$5.5K	$3.4K	$-2.1K	16% 18-98 (116)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Underavg 53¢	$634.87	$634.87	+$0	54% 521-440 (961)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 50.9¢	$118.11	$153.04	+$34.93	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 54¢	$117.87	$118.75	+$0.88	52% 490-447 (937)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 49¢	$111.27	$101.51	-$9.76	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$36.57	$38.48	+$1.9	55% 718-583 (1301)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 44¢	$6.25	$6.39	+$0.14	55% 658-540 (1198)
RN1<$100	Overavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.63	-$0.02	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.28	+$0.02	31% 405-886 (1291)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 45¢	$0.9	$0.91	+$0.01	46% 292-339 (631)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$5,567.32

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$18.59

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$5,500

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

16%

18-98 (116)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Under

Invested

$634.87

Value

$634.87

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

521-440 (961)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$118.11

Value

$153.04

PnL

+$34.93

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$117.87

Value

$118.75

PnL

+$0.88

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$111.27

Value

$101.51

PnL

-$9.76

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.57

Value

$38.48

PnL

+$1.9

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$6.25

Value

$6.39

PnL

+$0.14

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.02

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.