Spread: Hornets (-3.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (83%) · Hornets at 52¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 5

Hornets52¢Nets48¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

-$148.11

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 51.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets52%

Nets49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets2 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,613

Combined PnL-$116.45

Hornets10 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares11,808

Combined PnL-$31.66

Nets — 17%Hornets — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpHornets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrHornets 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Netsavg 50.9¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$116.45	51% 1610-1521 (3131)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Hornetsavg 52.2¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$63.88	53% 642-565 (1207)
Stickman22CTR	Netsavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	52% 1695-1572 (3267)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hornetsavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$27.5	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Hornetsavg 50.8¢	$883.7	$887.2	+$3.5	66% 3663-1846 (5509)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Hornetsavg 51¢	$428.27	$432.53	+$4.26	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 51¢	$327.76	$330.97	+$3.21
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 48¢	$100.51	$101.55	+$1.05
nigiri99	Hornetsavg 52.2¢	$292.6	$285.6	-$7	46% 8410-9880 (18290)
OM omnibus-076daa	Hornetsavg 51.3¢	$272.28	$270.51	-$1.77	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Hornetsavg 51¢	$203.99	$205.99	+$2	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
38 38791873984189	Hornetsavg 49.3¢	$189.37	$195.09	+$5.99	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
RN1	Hornetsavg 51¢	$127.5	$128.75	+$1.25	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
HE Herdonia<$100	Hornetsavg 51¢	$64.25	$64.89	+$0.64	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
GH ghorrock<$100	Hornetsavg 50¢	$5.5	$5.61	+$0.11	58% 19471-14317 (33788)

vibing123CTR

Nets

Invested

$3,112.04

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$116.45

Record

51%

1610-1521 (3131)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Hornets

Invested

$2,680.4

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$63.88

Record

53%

642-565 (1207)

Stickman22CTR

Nets

Invested

$1,715

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1695-1572 (3267)

HomeRunHazard

Hornets

Invested

$1,375

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$27.5

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

JAMJAMJAM4

Hornets

Invested

$883.7

Value

$887.2

PnL

+$3.5

Record

66%

3663-1846 (5509)

NM-PARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$428.27

Value

$432.53

PnL

+$4.26

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Hornets$327.7651¢+$3.21

Nets$100.5148¢+$1.05

nigiri99

Hornets

Invested

$292.6

Value

$285.6

PnL

-$7

Record

46%

8410-9880 (18290)

omnibus-076daa

Hornets

Invested

$272.28

Value

$270.51

PnL

-$1.77

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Hornets

Invested

$203.99

Value

$205.99

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

38791873984189

Hornets

Invested

$189.37

Value

$195.09

PnL

+$5.99

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

RN1

Hornets

Invested

$127.5

Value

$128.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Herdonia<$100

Hornets

Invested

$64.25

Value

$64.89

PnL

+$0.64

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

ghorrock<$100

Hornets

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpHornets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrHornets 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.