Spread: Lakers (-10.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (42%) · Lakers at 67¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 5

Lakers67¢Kings33¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

-$21.2

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 67¢

+26% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers67%

Kings33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares10,183

Combined PnL+$70.35

Kings7 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares11,209

Combined PnL-$91.55

Lakers — 42%Kings — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kings) and the top 1000 (7 on Lakers) disagree here.

whaleLakers 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrKings 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Lakersavg 55.2¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$98.88	49% 85-89 (174)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kingsavg 46¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$0	46% 1459-1718 (3177)
FL Flaznorp	Lakersavg 45.7¢	$950.12	$1.1K	+$168.44	51% 25264-24010 (49274)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Kingsavg 56.1¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$220.06	50% 4335-4280 (8615)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kingsavg 40.8¢	$429.39	$493.59	+$64.2	48% 60430-65044 (125474)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 40.8¢	$313.52	$353.86	+$40.34
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 44.8¢	$115.87	$139.73	+$23.86
VeryLucky888CTR	Kingsavg 43¢	$361.5	$435.83	+$74.34	58% 46107-33290 (79397)
TA takeormakeCTR	Kingsavg 46.5¢	$101.38	$100.28	-$1.1	53% 4769-4309 (9078)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Kingsavg 26¢	$49.42	$87.44	+$38.02	48% 7185-7873 (15058)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 41.4¢	$55.87	$58.04	+$6.42	50% 4291-4295 (8586)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Lakersavg 54¢	$57.77	$57.77	+$2.67	54% 18102-15230 (33332)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Kingsavg 27¢	$15.39	$26.22	+$10.83	48% 5344-5833 (11177)
RN1<$100	Lakersavg 57¢	$16.81	$15.92	-$0.88	53% 60814-53199 (114013)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Lakersavg 59.2¢	$11.25	$10.26	-$0.99	53% 12002-10530 (22532)

luckycat888888

Lakers

Invested

$4,418.88

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$98.88

Record

49%

85-89 (174)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kings

Invested

$3,510.12

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

1459-1718 (3177)

Flaznorp

Lakers

Invested

$950.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$168.44

Record

51%

25264-24010 (49274)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Kings

Invested

$1,225.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$220.06

Record

50%

4335-4280 (8615)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$429.39

Value

$493.59

PnL

+$64.2

Record

48%

60430-65044 (125474)

Both legs:

Kings$313.5240.8¢+$40.34

Lakers$115.8744.8¢+$23.86

VeryLucky888CTR

Kings

Invested

$361.5

Value

$435.83

PnL

+$74.34

Record

58%

46107-33290 (79397)

takeormakeCTR

Kings

Invested

$101.38

Value

$100.28

PnL

-$1.1

Record

53%

4769-4309 (9078)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$49.42

Value

$87.44

PnL

+$38.02

Record

48%

7185-7873 (15058)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$55.87

Value

$58.04

PnL

+$6.42

Record

50%

4291-4295 (8586)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Lakers

Invested

$57.77

Value

$57.77

PnL

+$2.67

Record

54%

18102-15230 (33332)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$15.39

Value

$26.22

PnL

+$10.83

Record

48%

5344-5833 (11177)

RN1<$100

Lakers

Invested

$16.81

Value

$15.92

PnL

-$0.88

Record

53%

60814-53199 (114013)

justaluckydude<$100

Lakers

Invested

$11.25

Value

$10.26

PnL

-$0.99

Record

53%

12002-10530 (22532)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kings) and the top 1000 (7 on Lakers) disagree here.

whaleLakers 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrKings 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.