Bucks vs. Timberwolves

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (57%) · Timberwolves at 80¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3

Bucks21¢Timberwolves79¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$17.25

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 79.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bucks21%

Timberwolves80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves8 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares10,432

Combined PnL-$23.01

Bucks6 traders

Total Value$822.58

Total Shares4,064

Combined PnL+$5.76

Timberwolves — 57%Bucks — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Timberwolvesavg 80¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	-$41.54	59% 258-178 (436)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 79¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$17.94	52% 2923-2744 (5667)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 79¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.94
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 20¢	$400.21	$410.21	+$10.01
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Timberwolvesavg 79¢	$790	$790	+$5	53% 5746-5083 (10829)
38 38791873984189	Timberwolvesavg 79¢	$658.01	$479.33	+$6.12	47% 12949-14528 (27477)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 20¢	$360	$369	+$9	58% 43585-31701 (75286)
HI hi774cCTR	Bucksavg 20¢	$220.33	$220.33	+$5.51	51% 4852-4594 (9446)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Bucksavg 21¢	$203.79	$194.09	-$9.7	51% 990-958 (1948)
FL Flaznorp	Timberwolvesavg 77¢	$167.65	$173.09	+$5.44	51% 17602-16613 (34215)
OD Oddstorm	Timberwolvesavg 78.7¢	$123.55	$124.93	+$1.38	48% 7155-7605 (14760)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Timberwolvesavg 79¢	$79	$79	+$0	54% 11661-10122 (21783)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Timberwolvesavg 79¢	$77.42	$77.42	+$0.49	49% 13477-14173 (27650)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Bucksavg 20¢	$19.72	$20.21	+$0.49	54% 3475-3012 (6487)
0xheavy888<$100	Timberwolvesavg 79¢	$15.8	$15.8	+$0.1	55% 7454-5978 (13432)
funnydayCTR<$100	Bucksavg 20¢	$12.25	$12.56	+$0.31	50% 3925-3907 (7832)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Bucksavg 20¢	$6.4	$6.4	+$0.16	50% 1243-1259 (2502)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Timberwolves

Invested

$6,645.8

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$41.54

Record

59%

258-178 (436)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,654.52

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$17.94

Record

52%

2923-2744 (5667)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$1,254.3179¢+$7.94

Bucks$400.2120¢+$10.01

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Timberwolves

Invested

$790

Value

$790

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5746-5083 (10829)

38791873984189

Timberwolves

Invested

$658.01

Value

$479.33

PnL

+$6.12

Record

47%

12949-14528 (27477)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$360

Value

$369

PnL

+$9

Record

58%

43585-31701 (75286)

hi774cCTR

Bucks

Invested

$220.33

Value

$220.33

PnL

+$5.51

Record

51%

4852-4594 (9446)

ferdinand2CTR

Bucks

Invested

$203.79

Value

$194.09

PnL

-$9.7

Record

51%

990-958 (1948)

Flaznorp

Timberwolves

Invested

$167.65

Value

$173.09

PnL

+$5.44

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

Oddstorm

Timberwolves

Invested

$123.55

Value

$124.93

PnL

+$1.38

Record

48%

7155-7605 (14760)

BoomLaLa<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$79

Value

$79

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

11661-10122 (21783)

LuckyLoo<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$77.42

Value

$77.42

PnL

+$0.49

Record

49%

13477-14173 (27650)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$19.72

Value

$20.21

PnL

+$0.49

Record

54%

3475-3012 (6487)

0xheavy888<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$15.8

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

7454-5978 (13432)

funnydayCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.56

PnL

+$0.31

Record

50%

3925-3907 (7832)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

1243-1259 (2502)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.