Spread: Knicks (-16.5)

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (71%) · Bucks at 53¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 11

Knicks48¢Bucks52¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.0K

Combined PnL

$6.25

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 52.5¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks48%

Bucks53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks4 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares29,122

Combined PnL+$321.79

Bucks10 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares28,183

Combined PnL-$315.55

Knicks — 29%Bucks — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+31 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBucks 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO ropetardCTR	Knicksavg 46.4¢	$13.5K	$13.8K	+$321.24	71% 135-55 (190)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bucksavg 53.5¢	$7.8K	$7.6K	-$144.83	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
HI hi774c	Bucksavg 54¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$94.74	8% 37-422 (459)
VeryLucky888	Bucksavg 53.4¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$40.34	50% 262-258 (520)
NM NM-P	Bucksavg 53.4¢	$551.55	$542.8	-$8.75	60% 3442-2338 (5780)
GC GC-P	Bucksavg 53.4¢	$551.25	$542.5	-$8.75	16% 66-350 (416)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bucksavg 54¢	$374.1	$360.24	-$13.86	54% 1645-1416 (3061)
FL Flaznorp	Bucksavg 53¢	$260.23	$257.78	-$2.45	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bucksavg 52.5¢	$235.39	$167.7	+$4.79	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 52.5¢	$98.67	$98.7	+$0.03
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 46.1¢	$67.04	$69	+$4.76
nigiri99	Bucksavg 53¢	$108.12	$107.1	-$1.02	52% 128-119 (247)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bucksavg 54¢	$40.17	$39.05	-$1.12	47% 149-168 (317)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bucksavg 52¢	$30.99	$31.3	+$0.31	49% 440-464 (904)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Knicksavg 47¢	$20.13	$20.34	+$0.21	26% 234-663 (897)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Knicksavg 46¢	$5.57	$5.81	+$0.24	56% 119-94 (213)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Knicksavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.8	+$0.1	26% 234-672 (906)

ropetardCTR

Knicks

Invested

$13,481

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$321.24

Record

71%

135-55 (190)

HomeRunHazard

Bucks

Invested

$7,774.91

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$144.83

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

hi774c

Bucks

Invested

$3,410.61

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$94.74

Record

37-422 (459)

VeryLucky888

Bucks

Invested

$2,404.34

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$40.34

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

NM-P

Bucks

Invested

$551.55

Value

$542.8

PnL

-$8.75

Record

60%

3442-2338 (5780)

GC-P

Bucks

Invested

$551.25

Value

$542.5

PnL

-$8.75

Record

16%

66-350 (416)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bucks

Invested

$374.1

Value

$360.24

PnL

-$13.86

Record

54%

1645-1416 (3061)

Flaznorp

Bucks

Invested

$260.23

Value

$257.78

PnL

-$2.45

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$235.39

Value

$167.7

PnL

+$4.79

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Bucks$98.6752.5¢+$0.03

Knicks$67.0446.1¢+$4.76

nigiri99

Bucks

Invested

$108.12

Value

$107.1

PnL

-$1.02

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

SnakeBall<$100

Bucks

Invested

$40.17

Value

$39.05

PnL

-$1.12

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

Pan9X<$100

Bucks

Invested

$30.99

Value

$31.3

PnL

+$0.31

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$20.13

Value

$20.34

PnL

+$0.21

Record

26%

234-663 (897)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$5.57

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$0.24

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

LimousinCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

26%

234-672 (906)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+31 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBucks 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.