Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 44¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 11

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$455.11

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 44¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares10,855

Combined PnL+$273.8

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,780

Combined PnL+$181.31

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 47¢	$4.7K	$5.0K	+$280.68	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$110.9	56% 488-383 (871)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$780	$1.0K	+$240
└ Over leg	Overavg 61.4¢	$641.15	$512.05	-$129.1
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 68¢	$1.1K	$940	-$149.58	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68¢	$771.04	$697.05	-$73.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$318.54	$242.95	-$75.59
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 49.6¢	$780.7	$822.08	+$41.38	54% 217-188 (405)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 38¢	$382.28	$513.06	+$130.78	30% 134-317 (451)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 49.9¢	$460.12	$456.73	-$3.39	28% 279-730 (1009)
RN1	Underavg 50¢	$125	$127.5	+$2.5	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 49¢	$120.05	$121.27	+$1.22	28% 285-731 (1016)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$80.17	$75.46	-$4.72	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 49¢	$66.74	$71.51	+$4.77	28% 275-716 (991)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 28.8¢	$3.65	$2.86	+$1.89	54% 383-322 (705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$4,728.97

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$280.68

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,421.15

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$110.9

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Both legs:

Under$78039¢+$240

Over$641.1561.4¢-$129.1

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,089.58

Value

$940

PnL

-$149.58

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Over$771.0468¢-$73.99

Under$318.5450.5¢-$75.59

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$780.7

Value

$822.08

PnL

+$41.38

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$382.28

Value

$513.06

PnL

+$130.78

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$460.12

Value

$456.73

PnL

-$3.39

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

RN1

Under

Invested

$125

Value

$127.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$120.05

Value

$121.27

PnL

+$1.22

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.17

Value

$75.46

PnL

-$4.72

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$66.74

Value

$71.51

PnL

+$4.77

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.65

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$1.89

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.