Knicks vs. Cavaliers

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (31%) · Knicks at 65¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 8

Knicks65¢Cavaliers35¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 31%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$144.47

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 64.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

4 of 13 top traders (31%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks65%

Cavaliers36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks4 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares10,697

Combined PnL+$152.72

Cavaliers9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,937

Combined PnL-$297.2

Knicks — 31%Cavaliers — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCavaliers 82% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Knicksavg 66.3¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$20.16	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
AP AppleTiiime	Knicksavg 60¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$169.96	54% 75-64 (139)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Cavaliersavg 43.2¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$303.71	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
NM NM-P	Knicksavg 64¢	$320	$322.5	+$2.5	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Knicksavg 63.7¢	$483.26	$156	-$25.58	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 63.7¢	$112.74	$114.2	+$1.46
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$45.92	$41.81	-$27.04
OD OddstormARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 38.3¢	$227.88	$136.54	-$27.91	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 38.3¢	$93.66	$86.89	-$10.67
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 63.9¢	$49.22	$49.66	-$17.24
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 37.5¢	$130.22	$127.89	-$2.33	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 37.5¢	$70.2	$66.52	-$3.68
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 63.1¢	$60.03	$61.37	+$1.35
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 34.5¢	$1.0K	$110.59	+$13.4	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Cavaliersavg 35¢	$101.65	$103.1	+$1.45	53% 667-585 (1252)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 34¢	$34	$35	+$1	53% 12584-11282 (23866)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 42.2¢	$27.37	$26.25	-$1.12	54% 540-457 (997)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$22.75	$20.68	-$2.07	47% 7500-8312 (15812)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Knicksavg 63.2¢	$9.51	$9.93	+$0.42	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 40.9¢	$65.78	$8.91	-$5.9	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 37¢	$5.88	$5.56	-$0.24	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.75	-$0	52% 9018-8169 (17187)

nigiri99

Knicks

Invested

$4,700.88

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$20.16

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

AppleTiiime

Knicks

Invested

$1,854.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$169.96

Record

54%

75-64 (139)

6512395314597884CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,751.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$303.71

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

NM-P

Knicks

Invested

$320

Value

$322.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$483.26

Value

$156

PnL

-$25.58

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Both legs:

Knicks$112.7463.7¢+$1.46

Cavaliers$45.9239¢-$27.04

OddstormARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$227.88

Value

$136.54

PnL

-$27.91

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$93.6638.3¢-$10.67

Knicks$49.2263.9¢-$17.24

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$130.22

Value

$127.89

PnL

-$2.33

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$70.237.5¢-$3.68

Knicks$60.0363.1¢+$1.35

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,035

Value

$110.59

PnL

+$13.4

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$101.65

Value

$103.1

PnL

+$1.45

Record

53%

667-585 (1252)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$34

Value

$35

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

12584-11282 (23866)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$27.37

Value

$26.25

PnL

-$1.12

Record

54%

540-457 (997)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$22.75

Value

$20.68

PnL

-$2.07

Record

47%

7500-8312 (15812)

Flaznorp<$100

Knicks

Invested

$9.51

Value

$9.93

PnL

+$0.42

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$65.78

Value

$8.91

PnL

-$5.9

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

4 of 13 top traders (31%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCavaliers 82% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.