Spread: Magic (-7.5)

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (29%) · Kings at 56¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 11

Magic45¢Kings55¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$53.12

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

4 of 14 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic45%

Kings56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings4 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares11,466

Combined PnL+$64.07

Magic10 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares11,045

Combined PnL-$10.95

Kings — 29%Magic — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMagic 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 73% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO ropetard	Kingsavg 55¢	$6.2K	$5.9K	+$60.06	71% 135-55 (190)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Magicavg 45¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$0.33	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
HI hi774cCTR	Magicavg 45¢	$434.82	$434.82	+$0	8% 37-420 (457)
nigiri99	Kingsavg 55¢	$425.15	$429.02	+$3.87	52% 126-116 (242)
SE sentrioCTR	Magicavg 45¢	$419.22	$414.66	-$4.56	31% 174-392 (566)
GC GC-PCTR	Magicavg 45.5¢	$318.5	$315	-$3.5	16% 66-348 (414)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Magicavg 44.7¢	$209.13	$210.36	+$1.23	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Magicavg 45¢	$161.09	$159.44	-$1.66	47% 148-167 (315)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 45¢	$120.91	$119.61	-$1.3
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 56¢	$40.18	$39.82	-$0.36
NM NM-PCTR	Magicavg 46¢	$161	$157.5	-$3.5	60% 3442-2336 (5778)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Magicavg 45¢	$72.45	$72.45	+$0	48% 917-990 (1907)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Magicavg 45¢	$11.25	$11.25	+$0	49% 433-456 (889)
0xheavy888<$100	Kingsavg 54¢	$10.8	$11	+$0.2	56% 116-90 (206)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Magicavg 45¢	$8.99	$8.99	+$0	25% 224-665 (889)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Magicavg 46¢	$9.2	$8.9	-$0.3	25% 222-667 (889)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Kingsavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.7	-$0.05	25% 169-511 (680)

ropetard

Kings

Invested

$6,236.88

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$60.06

Record

71%

135-55 (190)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Magic

Invested

$4,094.7

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$0.33

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

hi774cCTR

Magic

Invested

$434.82

Value

$434.82

PnL

+$0

Record

37-420 (457)

nigiri99

Kings

Invested

$425.15

Value

$429.02

PnL

+$3.87

Record

52%

126-116 (242)

sentrioCTR

Magic

Invested

$419.22

Value

$414.66

PnL

-$4.56

Record

31%

174-392 (566)

GC-PCTR

Magic

Invested

$318.5

Value

$315

PnL

-$3.5

Record

16%

66-348 (414)

FlaznorpCTR

Magic

Invested

$209.13

Value

$210.36

PnL

+$1.23

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$161.09

Value

$159.44

PnL

-$1.66

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

Both legs:

Invested

$161

Value

$157.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

60%

3442-2336 (5778)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$72.45

Value

$72.45

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

917-990 (1907)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

433-456 (889)

0xheavy888<$100

Kings

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

116-90 (206)

LimousinCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$8.99

Value

$8.99

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

224-665 (889)

VenusianCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$9.2

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

25%

222-667 (889)

ameisgoat11<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

25%

169-511 (680)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kings

4 of 14 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMagic 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 73% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.