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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

Magic vs. Kings: O/U 207.5

Resolved Under. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Over 47%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$-5.0K

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,280

Combined PnL$-6.6K

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,799

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over — 47%Under — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 60.3¢	$3.5K	—	$-3.5K	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 34.6¢	$910.76	$2.0K	+$1.1K	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 51.3¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K	56% 563-451 (1014)
RN1	Underavg 51¢	$685.11	$974.14	+$289.03	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 56.8¢	$468.6	$465.31	+$61.9	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
VE Venusian	Underavg 47¢	$89.63	$190.7	+$101.07	29% 322-803 (1125)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 60¢	$54	$90	+$36	63% 193-112 (305)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 62.5¢	$23.75	$38	+$14.25	48% 203-219 (422)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 65.7¢	$48	—	-$43.05	48% 512-544 (1056)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100	Underavg 99¢	$24.75	$25	+$0.25	51% 3684-3525 (7209)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 53.1¢	$462.5	—	-$462.5	53% 234-204 (438)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$11.47	—	-$11.47	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 19¢	$1.11	$5.85	+$4.74	54% 461-396 (857)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 42.5¢	$52.73	—	-$52.73	34% 175-334 (509)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$29	—	-$29	53% 5580-4967 (10547)

Invested

$3,468.34

Value

—

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

6512395314597884

Invested

$910.76

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Invested

$2,511.77

Value

—

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

Invested

$685.11

Value

$974.14

PnL

+$289.03

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Invested

$468.6

Value

$465.31

PnL

+$61.9

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

Invested

$89.63

Value

$190.7

PnL

+$101.07

Record

29%

322-803 (1125)

suitcase6628<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$90

PnL

+$36

Record

63%

193-112 (305)

Invested

$23.75

Value

$38

PnL

+$14.25

Record

48%

203-219 (422)

Invested

$48

Value

—

PnL

-$43.05

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100

Invested

$24.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

3684-3525 (7209)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Invested

$462.5

Value

—

PnL

-$462.5

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Invested

$11.47

Value

—

PnL

-$11.47

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

Invested

$1.11

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$4.74

Record

54%

461-396 (857)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Invested

$52.73

Value

—

PnL

-$52.73

Record

34%

175-334 (509)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$29

Value

—

PnL

-$29

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6edacd97...cd60a2

Slug

nba-orl-sac-2026-11-10-total-207pt5

Traders in this Market

Flaznorp

Over — $0

6512395314597884

Under — $2.0K

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over — $0

RN1

Under — $974.14

38791873984189

Under — $465.31

Venusian

Under — $190.7

suitcase6628

Under — $90

lryyy

Under — $38

Pan9X

Over — $0

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Under — $25

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