Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Spurs (51%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Spurs (-8.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (58%) · Suns at 50¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 10

Spurs51¢Suns49¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.4K

Combined PnL

$23.13

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs51%

Suns50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns7 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares29,519

Combined PnL+$2.85

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares21,819

Combined PnL+$20.28

Suns — 58%Spurs — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Sunsavg 49.9¢	$8.1K	$8.0K	-$64.68	—
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 50¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$54.26	—
nehcnehc	Spursavg 51¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$46.38	—
drainedandpoorCTR	Sunsavg 49¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$43.26	—
HI hi774cCTR	Sunsavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$22.43	—
IA ianf2026	Spursavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10	—
NM NM-PARB<$100	Sunsavg 48.2¢	$389.01	$396.48	+$3.03	—
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 48.2¢	$214.01	$219.73	+$1.28
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 50¢	$175	$176.75	+$1.75
GC GC-PARB<$100	Spursavg 50¢	$259.92	$264.33	+$4.4	—
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 50¢	$175	$176.75	+$1.75
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 48¢	$84.92	$87.58	+$2.65
FL Flaznorp	Spursavg 50¢	$201	$203.01	+$2.01	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sunsavg 48¢	$54.24	$55.93	+$1.69	—
RN1<$100	Spursavg 50¢	$38.05	$38.43	+$0.38	—
nigiri99CTR<$100	Sunsavg 49¢	$2.94	$2.97	+$0.03	—
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Sunsavg 48¢	$2.61	$2.69	+$0.08	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Sunsavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.48	+$0.03	—

VeryLucky888CTR

Suns

Invested

$8,108.43

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$64.68

Record

—

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$5,157.29

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$54.26

Record

—

nehcnehc

Spurs

Invested

$4,732.25

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$46.38

Record

—

drainedandpoorCTR

Suns

Invested

$4,239.83

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$43.26

Record

—

hi774cCTR

Suns

Invested

$2,198.59

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$22.43

Record

—

ianf2026

Spurs

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

—

NM-PARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$389.01

Value

$396.48

PnL

+$3.03

Record

—

Both legs:

Suns$214.0148.2¢+$1.28

Spurs$17550¢+$1.75

GC-PARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$259.92

Value

$264.33

PnL

+$4.4

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$201

Value

$203.01

PnL

+$2.01

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$54.24

Value

$55.93

PnL

+$1.69

Record

—

RN1<$100

Spurs

Invested

$38.05

Value

$38.43

PnL

+$0.38

Record

—

nigiri99CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

—

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.03

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.