Spread: Pistons (-10.5)

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (21%) · Wizards at 51¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10

Pistons50¢Wizards50¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 21%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$79.98

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

3 of 14 top traders (21%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons50%

Wizards51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards3 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares14,464

Combined PnL+$69.37

Pistons11 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,478

Combined PnL+$10.61

Wizards — 21%Pistons — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehc	Wizardsavg 49.5¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$94.52	61% 4534-2843 (7377)
Medo3D	Wizardsavg 52.2¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$25	41% 203-298 (501)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pistonsavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20.07	54% 20343-17178 (37521)
IA ianf2026CTR	Pistonsavg 50¢	$1.0K	$990	-$10	50% 134-136 (270)
GC GC-PCTR	Pistonsavg 49.6¢	$273	$272.25	-$0.75	57% 22682-16912 (39594)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Pistonsavg 50¢	$261.55	$260.66	-$0.88	57% 22830-16911 (39741)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 50¢	$175	$173.25	-$1.75
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 50¢	$86.55	$87.41	+$0.87
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pistonsavg 50¢	$185.84	$185.84	+$0	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Pistonsavg 49.3¢	$108.6	$109.02	+$0.43	50% 49353-48879 (98232)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 49¢	$90.16	$91.08	+$0.92	48% 72298-78071 (150369)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 49.9¢	$43.38	$43	-$0.38	51% 28897-28239 (57136)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 49¢	$12.25	$12.38	+$0.13	53% 28460-25726 (54186)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 50¢	$10	$10.1	+$0.1	47% 3609-4021 (7630)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Wizardsavg 51.1¢	$4.6	$4.46	-$0.14	53% 14841-13046 (27887)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.53	+$0.13	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	50% 24168-24285 (48453)

nehcnehc

Wizards

Invested

$4,680.26

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$94.52

Record

61%

4534-2843 (7377)

Medo3D

Wizards

Invested

$2,612.48

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$25

Record

41%

203-298 (501)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pistons

Invested

$1,966.96

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$20.07

Record

54%

20343-17178 (37521)

ianf2026CTR

Pistons

Invested

$1,000

Value

$990

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

134-136 (270)

GC-PCTR

Pistons

Invested

$273

Value

$272.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

57%

22682-16912 (39594)

NM-PARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$261.55

Value

$260.66

PnL

-$0.88

Record

57%

22830-16911 (39741)

Both legs:

Pistons$17550¢-$1.75

Wizards$86.5550¢+$0.87

FlaznorpCTR

Pistons

Invested

$185.84

Value

$185.84

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

SnakeBallCTR

Pistons

Invested

$108.6

Value

$109.02

PnL

+$0.43

Record

50%

49353-48879 (98232)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$90.16

Value

$91.08

PnL

+$0.92

Record

48%

72298-78071 (150369)

sentrioCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$43.38

Value

$43

PnL

-$0.38

Record

51%

28897-28239 (57136)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

28460-25726 (54186)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$10

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

3609-4021 (7630)

ameisgoat11<$100

Wizards

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

24168-24285 (48453)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

3 of 14 top traders (21%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.