Consensus PnL $210K · win rate 61% (449–282, n=731) · was PM monthly #766 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$210.2K
Record
449W / 282L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 731 settled
Batting Avg
64.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1116
Source
PM monthly #766
Trades
1,114
Markets
823
Volume
$6.0M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 13 on the consensus side (46%)- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $11K · now 24¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $6.0K · now 30¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $4.0K · now 6¢ · in at 7¢with the consensus (97% of 32)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.0K · now 31¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $2.8K · now 23¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $2.5K · now 5¢ · in at 8¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1.6K · now 8¢ · in at 9¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $1.0K · now 13¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
Specialties
652 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 55¢- NBA
+30 pts
side won 90% of 190 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +6%
- Soccer
+24 pts
side won 89% of 84 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +13%
- NFL
+17 pts
side won 72% of 189 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 26% of 123)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 59% of 111)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 91% of 186)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 93% of 232)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.