Spread: Bills (-17.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (80%) · Bills at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1

Bills>99¢Ravens<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 80%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

43.9¢ → 99.1¢

+126% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills99%

Ravens1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ravens2 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,206

Combined PnL+$125.95

Bills8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares7,558

Combined PnL+$961.92

Ravens — 20%Bills — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Ravensavg 68¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$580.93	54% 1249-1044 (2293)
RN1	Billsavg 37.4¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$682.21	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
AN Anon455	Billsavg 66¢	$804.62	$975.6	+$170.98	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Ravensavg 47.2¢	$1.0K	$547.34	-$454.98	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
TO topdogbigboi	Billsavg 73.6¢	$409.09	$513.11	+$104.02	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
PR primm	Billsavg 32¢	$277.76	$282.1	+$4.34	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Billsavg 33¢	$56.81	$55.09	-$1.72	62% 2198-1345 (3543)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Billsavg 81¢	$52.65	$54.6	+$1.95	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Billsavg 12¢	$7.56	$8.51	+$0.95	50% 7127-7172 (14299)
GH ghorrock<$100	Billsavg 23¢	$1.92	$1.13	-$0.79	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Ravens

Invested

$2,135.3

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$580.93

Record

54%

1249-1044 (2293)

RN1

Bills

Invested

$1,801.94

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$682.21

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Anon455

Bills

Invested

$804.62

Value

$975.6

PnL

+$170.98

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

UpTheBluesCTR

Ravens

Invested

$1,002.32

Value

$547.34

PnL

-$454.98

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

topdogbigboi

Bills

Invested

$409.09

Value

$513.11

PnL

+$104.02

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

primm

Bills

Invested

$277.76

Value

$282.1

PnL

+$4.34

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Bills

Invested

$56.81

Value

$55.09

PnL

-$1.72

Record

62%

2198-1345 (3543)

justaluckydude<$100

Bills

Invested

$52.65

Value

$54.6

PnL

+$1.95

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Forecastication2<$100

Bills

Invested

$7.56

Value

$8.51

PnL

+$0.95

Record

50%

7127-7172 (14299)

ghorrock<$100

Bills

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.79

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.